2026 United States Senate election in Texas
November 3, 2026
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| Elections in Texas |
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| Government |
The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Texas. Primary elections will be held on March 3, 2026, with a runoff election held on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority in their respective primaries. Incumbent four-term Republican Senator John Cornyn, who was re-elected in 2020, is running for re-election to a fifth term in office. Cornyn is facing a primary challenge from Representative Wesley Hunt and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Republicans have won every U.S. Senate election in Texas since 1990, and an incumbent senator has not lost a primary since 1970.
Republican primary
Background
Incumbent Senator John Cornyn is seeking a fifth term but is facing a competitive challenge from Attorney General Ken Paxton. The two have clashed for years with Paxton criticizing Cornyn for being insufficiently conservative, particularly over his support for U.S. aid to Ukraine, DREAM Act for DACA beneficiaries and playing a leading role in the passage of the bipartisan gun safety bill after the Uvalde school massacre. Cornyn, in turn, has highlighted Paxton's legal troubles, perceived character flaws and corruption, and his 2023 impeachment, in which Paxton was impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House before the Senate later acquitted him of all charges.[1][2][3][4]
The race has been viewed as a key battle between the Texas Republican Party's establishment wing and its hardline conservative faction.[1] Republican primary voters in Texas have been increasingly divided as the insurgent hard-right faction has been steadily gaining ground in recent years and has ousted more traditional GOP elected officials. Polling has found clear evidence of the divide and that Paxton has a massive lead among "Trump Movement" voters while Cornyn leads among "Traditional Republicans" who make up a much smaller chunk of the electorate.[5] Trump had previously criticized Cornyn as a "hopeless" RINO for backing the gun safety bill which Paxton has highlighted in ads.[6][7] President Trump has yet to endorse either of the candidates though he says that both Paxton and Cornyn are good friends of his.[8] Trump's endorsement is considered to be critical in deciding the winner of the primary.[9] Ted Cruz, the junior senator, has also avoided picking a side in the primary, having previously endorsed Cornyn in the last primary of 2020.[10]
Campaign
Paxton has led Cornyn in early polling conducted both before and after his official entry into the race. Questions have been raised about Paxton's electability in the general election, however, as polls have shown him underperforming Cornyn, even trailing hypothetical Democratic opponents.[11] Cornyn told the Wall Street Journal in June 2025 that he would be willing to step aside if a candidate who could defeat Paxton emerged. However, Cornyn retracted this statement days later, saying he would not drop out of the race.[12]
Candidates
Declared
- John Adefope[13]
- Anna Bender, IT analyst[13][14]
- Virgil Bierschwale, software developer and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[15][16]
- Sara Canady, retired judge and former Wilson County Justice of the Peace[13][14]
- John Cornyn, incumbent U.S. Senator (2002–present)[17]
- Wesley Hunt, U.S. representative from Texas's 38th congressional district (2023–present)[18]
- Gulrez "Gus" Khan, entrepreneur, candidate for Texas's 32nd congressional district in 2024, and candidate for mayor of Lubbock in 2022[15][16]
- Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General (2015–present)[19]
Withdrawn
- Alexander Duncan, police officer (endorsed Hunt)[20]
- Rennie Mann, president of the Richland Springs school board[13][21]
- Barrett McNabb, chiropractic business owner (running for U.S. House)[22]
- Tony Schmoker, realtor[13][15]
- Leo Wyatt[13][15]
Endorsements
John Cornyn
- Executive branch officials
- Rick Perry, former Secretary of Energy (2017–2019) and former governor of Texas (2000–2015)[23]
- U.S. senators
- John Barrasso, Senate Majority Whip (2025–present) from Wyoming (2007–present)[24]
- Marsha Blackburn, Tennessee (2019–present)[24]
- Tom Cotton, Arkansas (2015–present)[24]
- Bill Hagerty, Tennessee (2021–present)[25]
- Rand Paul, Kentucky (2011–present)[24]
- Rick Scott, Florida (2019–present)[25]
- Tim Scott, South Carolina (2013–present)[26]
- John Thune, Senate Majority Leader (2025–present) from South Dakota (2005–present)[27]
- Tommy Tuberville, Alabama (2021–present)[24]
- Pete Ricketts, Nebraska (2023–present)[28]
- U.S. representatives
- Craig Goldman, TX-12 (2025–present)[29]
- Jake Ellzey, TX-06 (2021–present)[30]
- French Hill, AR-02 (2015–present)[24]
- Bill Archer, former TX-07 (1971–2001)[31]
- Henry Bonilla, former TX-23 (1993–2007)[31]
- Kevin Brady, former TX-08 (1997–2023)[31]
- Michael Burgess, former TX-26 (2003–2025)[31]
- Quico Canseco, former TX-23 (2011–2013)[31]
- Mike Conaway, former TX-11 (2005–2021)[31]
- John Culberson, former TX-7 (2001–2019)[31]
- Tom DeLay, former House Majority Leader (2003–2005) from TX-22 (1985–2006)[31]
- Bill Flores, former TX-17 (2011–2021)[31]
- Jeb Hensarling, former TX-05 (2003–2019)[31]
- Kenny Marchant, former TX-24 (2005–2021)[31]
- Pete Olson, former TX-22 (2009–2021)[31]
- Ted Poe, former TX-02 (2005–2019)[31]
- Lamar Smith, former TX-21 (1987–2019)[31]
- Mac Thornberry, former TX-13 (1995–2021)[31]
- State legislators
- Charlie Geren, state representative from the 99th district (2003–present) and 89th district (2001–2003)[32]
- Giovanni Capriglione, state representative from the 98th district (2013–present)[32]
- Rodney Anderson, former state representative from the 105th district (2015–2019) and 106th district (2011–2013)[32]
- Dee Margo, former state representative from the 78th district (2011–2013) and mayor of El Paso (2017–2021)[33]
- Local officials
- Mattie Parker, mayor of Fort Worth (2021–present)[34]
- Betsy Price, former mayor of Fort Worth (2011–2021)[34]
- Javier Villalobos, mayor of McAllen (2021–present)[35]
- Pete Saenz, former mayor of Laredo (2014–2022) (Democratic)[35]
- Jim Darling, former mayor of McAllen (2013–2021) (Democratic)[35]
- Labor unions
- Combined Law Enforcement Associations of Texas[36]
- National Association of Realtors[37]
- National Border Patrol Council[25]
- Texas Association of Realtors[37]
- Organizations
Ken Paxton
- U.S. representatives
- Lance Gooden, TX-05 (2019–present)[39]
- Troy Nehls, TX-22 (2021–present)[39]
- State legislators
- Matt Rinaldi, former state representative from the 115th district (2015–2019) and former chair of the Texas Republican Party (2021–2024)[43]
- Individuals
- Organizations
Wesley Hunt
- U.S. representatives
- Organizations
Declined to endorse
- U.S. senators
- U.S. representatives
- Brian Babin, TX-36 (2015–present)[24]
- Keith Self, TX-03 (2023–present)[24]
Fundraising
Italics indicate withdrawn candidate
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand | |
| Virgil Bierschwale (R) | $9,780 | $2,383 | $7,398 | |
| John Cornyn (R) | $8,957,115 | $3,576,091 | $6,014,485 | |
| Wesley Hunt (R) | $1,371,508 | $2,343,552 | $1,515,133 | |
| Gurlez Khan (R) | $3,100 | $3,647 | $0 | |
| Ken Paxton (R) | $4,204,850 | $1,022,073 | $3,182,777 | |
| Tony Schmoker (R) | $2,500 | $3,107 | $0 | |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[48] | ||||
Polling
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
John Cornyn |
Wesley Hunt |
Ken Paxton |
Other/Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics[49] | May 11 – December 3, 2025 | December 7, 2025 | 30.3% | 20.5% | 30.0% | 19.2% | Cornyn +0.3% |
| Decision Desk HQ[50] | May 11 – December 3, 2025 | December 7, 2025 | 26.8% | 21.6% | 31.7% | 19.9% | Paxton +4.9% |
| Race to the WH[51] | January 4 – December 3, 2025 | December 7, 2025 | 26.9% | 21.0% | 29.9% | 22.2% | Paxton +3.0% |
| Average | 28.0% | 21.0% | 30.5% | 20.4% | Paxton +2.5% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Wesley Hunt |
Ken Paxton |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[52][A] | December 1–4, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 27% | 28% | 33% | 12% |
| J.L. Partners[53] | December 1–3, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 24% | 24% | 29% | 23% |
| co/efficient (R)[54] | December 1–3, 2025 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.07% | 28% | 19% | 27% | 26% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[55][B] | December 1–2, 2025 | 527 (LV) | – | 22% | 22% | 32% | 24% |
| Peak Insights (R)[56][C] | November 20–25, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 18% | 33% | 14% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[57][D] | November 21–22, 2025 | 857 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 25% | 26% | 36% | 13% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[58][E] | November 13–16, 2025 | 758 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 32% | 21% | 31% | 16% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | November 4–6, 2025 | 811 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 27% | 26% | 34% | 13% |
| Harper Polling (R)[60][F] | October 28–30, 2025 | 614 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 26% | 24% | 25% | 25% |
| Hunt Research (R)[29][61] | October 6–10, 2025 | 1,097 (LV) | ± 2.96% | 24% | 19% | 28% | 29% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | October 4–6, 2025 | – (V) | – | 31% | 24% | 34% | 11% |
| Peak Insights (R)[56][C] | October 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 19% | 36% | 11% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 33% | 22% | 34% | 11% |
| Deep Root Analytics (R)[63][C] | September 22–28, 2025 | 1,142 (LV) | – | 33% | 21% | 28% | 18% |
| UT Tyler[64] | September 17–24, 2025 | 492 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 29% | 14% | 31% | 26% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[65][G] | September 20–22, 2025 | 760 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 32% | 17% | 31% | 20% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[66][D] | September 14–16, 2025 | 842 (V) | – | 28% | 23% | 38% | 11% |
| 38% | 23% | 39% | – | ||||
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | August 24–26, 2025 | – (V) | – | 28% | 23% | 38% | 11% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | August 4–6, 2025 | – (V) | – | 29% | 23% | 37% | 11% |
| Texas Southern University[67] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 30% | 22% | 35% | 13% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | July 16–18, 2025 | – (V) | – | 32% | 15% | 38% | 15% |
| G1 Research[68] | Late June 2025 | – | – | 28% | 17% | 41% | 14% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | June 22–23, 2025 | – (V) | – | 28% | 17% | 41% | 14% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[69][70][H] | June 17–22, 2025 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 32% | 13% | 49% | 7% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | June 8–10, 2025 | – (V) | – | 28% | 12% | 47% | 13% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[71] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 27% | 15% | 34% | 24% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[72][73][I] | May 11–13, 2025 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 16% | 46% | – |
| American Opportunity Alliance (R)[74][75] | April 29 – May 1, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 27% | 14% | 43% | 16% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | April 29–30, 2025 | – (V) | – | 27% | 18% | 40% | 15% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[76][E] | April 27 – May 1, 2025 | – | – | 34% | 19% | 44% | – |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | April 15–17, 2025 | – (V) | – | 26% | 18% | 42% | 14% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | March 23–25, 2025 | – (V) | – | 26% | 13% | 46% | 15% |
Hypothetical polling
- John Cornyn vs. Ken Paxton
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Ken Paxton |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[52][A] | December 1–4, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 44% | – | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[55][B] | December 1–2, 2025 | 527 (LV) | – | 34% | 44% | – | 22% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[58][E] | November 13–16, 2025 | 758 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 41% | – | 14% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | November 4–6, 2025 | 811 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 38% | 46% | – | 16% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | October 4–6, 2025 | – (V) | – | 43% | 46% | – | 11% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 43% | – | 13% |
| UT Tyler[64] | September 17–24, 2025 | 493 (RV) | – | 39% | 37% | – | 23% |
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[65][G] | September 20–22, 2025 | – (V) | ± 3.6% | 39% | 39% | – | 22% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | September 14–16, 2025 | – (V) | – | 44% | 44% | – | 12% |
| Texas Public Opinion Research[78] | August 27–29, 2025 | 320 (RV) | – | 32% | 26% | 13%[c] | 29% |
| co/efficient (R)[79] | August 25–27, 2025 | 818 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 36% | 39% | – | 25% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | August 24–26, 2025 | – (V) | – | 41% | 48% | – | 11% |
| Echelon Insights[80] | August 21–24, 2025 | 515 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 37% | 42% | – | 21% |
| Emerson College[81] | August 11–12, 2025 | 491 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 30% | 29% | 5%[d] | 36% |
| Texas Southern University[67] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 39% | 44% | – | 17% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | August 4–6, 2025 | – (V) | – | 42% | 45% | – | 13% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | July 16–18, 2025 | – (V) | – | 36% | 47% | – | 17% |
| Pulse Decision Science (R)[69][70][H] | June 17–22, 2025 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 57% | – | 5% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | June 8–10, 2025 | – (V) | – | 33% | 49% | – | 18% |
| UT Tyler[82] | May 28 – June 7, 2025 | 538 (RV) | – | 34% | 44% | – | 22% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[83][84][J] | June 6–8, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 33% | 49% | – | 18% |
| UpONE Insights (R)[85][86][K] | May 27–28, 2025 | 600 (V) | ± 4.0% | 28% | 50% | – | 21% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[71] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 34% | 43% | – | 23% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[72][73][I] | May 11–13, 2025 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 52% | – | 9% |
| American Opportunity Alliance (R)[74][75] | April 29 – May 1, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 35% | 52% | – | 13% |
| The Tarrance Group (R)[76][E] | April 27 – May 1, 2025 | – | – | 40% | 56% | – | – |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | April 29–30, 2025 | – (V) | – | 33% | 48% | – | 19% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | April 15–17, 2025 | – (V) | – | 33% | 50% | – | 17% |
| Internal Republican Party poll[87] | Mid–April 2025 | 605 (V) | – | 33% | 50% | – | 17% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[59][D] | March 23–25, 2025 | – (V) | – | 35% | 52% | – | 13% |
| Lake Research Partners (D)/ Slingshot Strategies (D)[88][L] |
March 7–10, 2025 | – (RV) | – | 27% | 38% | 19%[e] | 16% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[89] | January 28 – February 2, 2025 | – (V) | – | 28% | 53% | – | 19% |
| Victory Insights (R)[90] | January 4–6, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 42% | – | 25% |
| CWS Research (R)[91][M] | July 9–10, 2022 | 1,918 (RV) | ± 2.2% | 31% | 51% | – | 18% |
- John Cornyn vs. Wesley Hunt
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Wesley Hunt |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[52][A] | December 1–4, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 35% | 50% | 15% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[55][B] | December 1–2, 2025 | 527 (LV) | – | 28% | 45% | 27% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 34% | 16% |
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[66][D] | September 14–16, 2025 | 842 (V) | – | 37% | 46% | 17% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[71] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 39% | 31% | 30% |
- Ken Paxton vs. Wesley Hunt
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton |
Wesley Hunt |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McLaughlin & Associates (R)[52][A] | December 1–4, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 45% | 16% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 576 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 35% | 15% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[71] | May 9–19, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 25% | 30% |
- John Cornyn vs. Ronny Jackson vs. Chip Roy
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Ronny Jackson |
Chip Roy |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS Research (R)[92][M] | October 19–23, 2022 | 823 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 35% | 14% | 18% | 33% |
- John Cornyn vs. "Someone Else"
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn |
Someone Else |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victory Insights (R)[90] | January 4–6, 2025 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 40% | 25% |
Democratic primary
Background
Democrats, who have not won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, see an opening in the state due to the bitter and divisive primary fight in the Republican side, a potential midterm backlash against the Trump administration, negative approval ratings for President Trump in Texas as well as recent polling numbers showing competitive matchups.[93][94][95][96]
Colin Allred, who unsuccessfully ran against incumbent Republican senator Ted Cruz in 2024, exited the race on December 8, 2025, which precipitated Jasmine Crockett's entry into the race.[97]
Candidates
Declared
- Jasmine Crockett, U.S. representative from Texas’s 30th congressional district (2023–present)[98]
- Ahmed R. Hassan, real estate broker and attorney, perennial candidate[14][13]
- James Talarico, state representative from the 50th district (2018–present)[99]
Withdrawn
- Colin Allred, former U.S. representative from Texas's 32nd congressional district (2019–2025) and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024 (running for U.S. House)[100]
- Emily Morgul, administrative assistant[101][13]
- Michael Swanson, waiter[101][13]
- Terry Virts, retired United States Air Force pilot and NASA astronaut (running for U.S. House)[102]
- Paula Williams, realtor[103][13]
Declined
- Joaquin Castro, U.S. representative from Texas's 20th congressional district (2013–present)[104]
- Veronica Escobar, U.S. representative from Texas's 16th congressional district (2019–present) (running for re-election)[105]
- Clay Jenkins, Dallas County judge[f] (2011–present)[106]
- Marc Veasey, U.S. representative from Texas's 33rd congressional district (2013–present)[107] (endorsed Allred)[108]
Endorsements
James Talarico
U.S. representatives
- Julie Johnson, TX-32 (2025–present)[109]
Statewide officials
- Rebecca Bell-Metereau, Texas State Board of Education member (2021–present)[109]
- Staci Childs, Texas State Board of Education member (2023–present)[110]
- Tiffany Clark, Texas State Board of Education member (2025–present)[109]
- Gustavo Reveles, Texas State Board of Education member (2025–present)[109]
State legislators
- 31 state legislators[g]
Individuals
- Bobby Pulido, Tejano musician[111]
Colin Allred (withdrawn)
- Executive branch officials
- Ron Kirk, former United States Trade Representative (2009–2013)[112]
- U.S. representatives
- Lizzie Fletcher, TX-07 (2019–present)[113]
- Sanford Bishop, GA-02 (1993–present)[108]
- Yvette Clarke, NY-09 (2007–present)[108]
- Steven Horsford, NV-04 (2013–2015, 2019–present)[108]
- Gregory Meeks, NY-05 (1998–present)[108]
- Joe Neguse, CO-02 (2019–present)[108]
- Lauren Underwood, IL-14 (2019–present)[108]
- Marc Veasey, TX-33 (2013–present)[108]
State legislators
- Alma Allen, state representative from the 131st district (2005–present)[114]
- Rhetta Bowers, state representative from the 113th district (2019–present)[110]
- Barbara Gervin-Hawkins, state representative from the 120th district (2017–present)[114]
- Toni Rose, state representative from the 110th district (2023–present)[114]
- Venton Jones, state representative from the 100th district (2023–present)[114]
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2025 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| James Talarico (D) | $6,268,610 | $1,309,971 | $4,958,638 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[48] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Jasmine Crockett |
James Talarico |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Southern University[115] | December 9–11, 2025 | 1,600 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 51% | 43% | – | 6% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 478 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 52% | 34% | – | 14% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Colin Allred |
Emily Morgul |
James Talarico |
Michael Swanson |
Terry Virts |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research (D)[116][N] | October 23–29, 2025 | 836 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | – | 48% | – | – | 9% |
| UT Tyler[64] | September 17–24, 2025 | 377 (RV) | – | 42% | – | 30% | – | – | 28%[h] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[117] | September 3–4, 2025 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 40% | – | 32% | – | – | 27% |
| Emerson College[81] | August 11–12, 2025 | 370 (RV) | ± 5.1% | 58% | 4% | – | 3% | 1% | 34% |
| Texas Southern University[67] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 50% | – | 43% | – | – | 7% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Colin Allred |
James Talarico |
Joaquin Castro |
Jasmine Crockett |
Beto O'Rourke |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 478 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 13% | 25% | – | 31% | 25% | – | 6% |
| 34% | – | – | 57% | – | – | 9% | ||||
| 38% | – | – | – | 55% | – | 7% | ||||
| – | – | – | 51% | 41% | – | 8% | ||||
| 46% | 42% | – | – | – | – | 8% | ||||
| 39% | – | – | 54% | – | 7% | |||||
| UT Tyler[64] | September 17–24, 2025 | 377 (RV) | – | 25% | – | 13% | 29% | 31% | 2%[i] | – |
| Texas Public Opinion Research[78] | August 27–29, 2025 | 270 (RV) | – | 13% | 7% | 4% | 26% | 27% | 5%[j] | 18% |
| Texas Southern University[67] | August 6–12, 2025 | 1,500 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 38% | – | – | – | 58% | – | 4% |
| 52% | – | – | 41% | – | – | 7% | ||||
| NRSC (R)[118] | July 4–7, 2025 | 566 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 20% | – | 13% | 35% | 13% | – | 18% |
Third-party and independent candidates
Candidates
Declared
- Ted Brown (Libertarian), nominee for U.S. Senate in 2024[119]
- Joshua Cain (Independent)[119][120]
- Ronald Evans (Independent)[120]
- Camencia Ford (Independent), businesswoman[119][120]
- Jade Simmons (Independent), motivational speaker[119][120]
- Robert Smith (Green), assistant professor[121]
- Hans Truelson (Independent)[119][120]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Inside Elections[122] | Likely R | August 12, 2025 |
| The Cook Political Report[123] | Likely R | October 14, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[124] | Likely R | August 12, 2025 |
| Race To The WH[125] | Lean R | December 3, 2025 |
Polling
John Cornyn vs. Jasmine Crockett
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Jasmine Crockett (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[126] | November 21–26, 2025 | 1,189 (V) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
Ken Paxton vs. Jasmine Crockett
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
Jasmine Crockett (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research (D)[126] | November 21–26, 2025 | 1,189 (V) | ± 3.1% | 50% | 42% | 8% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 49% | 47% | 2% |
Wesley Hunt vs. Jasmine Crockett
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Wesley Hunt (R) |
Jasmine Crockett (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
John Cornyn vs. James Talarico
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
James Talarico (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[127] | November 12–17, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 40% | – | 14% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 48% | 45% | – | 7% |
| UT Tyler[64] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 35% | 7%[k] | 17% |
Ken Paxton vs. James Talarico
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
James Talarico (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[127] | November 12–17, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 44% | – | 12% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 49% | 46% | – | 5% |
| UT Tyler[64] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 37% | 8%[l] | 17% |
Wesley Hunt vs. James Talarico
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Wesley Hunt (R) |
James Talarico (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 50% | 44% | – | 6% |
| UT Tyler[64] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 37% | 6%[m] | 21% |
Hypothetical polling
John Cornyn vs. Colin Allred
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Colin Allred (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[127] | November 12–17, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 40% | – | 13% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| UT Tyler[64] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 37% | 7%[k] | 13% |
| Emerson College[81] | August 11–12, 2025 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 38% | – | 17% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[71] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 44% | – | 8% |
Ken Paxton vs. Colin Allred
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
Colin Allred (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ragnar Research Partners (R)[127] | November 12–17, 2025 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 44% | – | 12% |
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 48% | 47% | – | 5% |
| UT Tyler[64] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 41% | 8%[l] | 13% |
| GBAO (D)[128][O] | August 13–18, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 49% | – | 4% |
| 49% | 50%[n] | – | – | ||||
| Emerson College[81] | August 11–12, 2025 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[71] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 46% | – | 6% |
| Brad Parscale (R)[87] | Mid–April 2025 | >1,000 (LV) | – | 37% | 52% | – | 11% |
Wesley Hunt vs. Colin Allred
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Wesley Hunt (R) |
Colin Allred (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
| UT Tyler[64] | September 17–24, 2025 | 1,032 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 37% | 6%[m] | 19% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[71] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 44% | – | 9% |
John Cornyn vs. Beto O'Rourke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[71] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
Ken Paxton vs. Beto O'Rourke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[71] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
Wesley Hunt vs. Beto O'Rourke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Wesley Hunt (R) |
Beto O'Rourke (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Houston/ Texas Southern University[62] |
September 19 – October 1, 2025 | 1,650 (RV) | ± 2.41% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[71] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
John Cornyn vs. Joaquin Castro
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Joaquin Castro (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[71] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
Ken Paxton vs. Joaquin Castro
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
Joaquin Castro (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[71] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
Wesley Hunt vs. Joaquin Castro
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Wesley Hunt (R) |
Joaquin Castro (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov/Texas Southern University[71] | May 9–19, 2025 | 1,200 (RV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
John Cornyn vs. Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
John Cornyn (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[83][84][J] | June 6–8, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 35% | 23% |
Ken Paxton vs. Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ken Paxton (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stratus Intelligence (R)[83][84][J] | June 6–8, 2025 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 42% | 19% |
Generic Republican vs. Generic Democrat
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Public Opinion Research[78] | August 27–29, 2025 | 843 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 43% | 9%[o] | – |
Notes
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 9%; "Prefer not to answer" with 4%
- ^ "Someone else" with 5%
- ^ Would not Vote with 8%; Other with 7%; Refused with 4%
- ^ County executive
- ^
- Diego Bernal, state representative from the 123rd district (2015–present)[109]
- John Bryant, state representative from the 114th district (2023–present)[109]
- John Bucy III, state representative from the 136th district (2019–present)[109]
- Elizabeth Campos, state representative from the 119th district (2021–present)[109]
- Terry Canales, state representative from the 40th district (2013–present)[110]
- Sheryl Cole, state representative from the 46th district (2019–present)[110]
- Philip Cortez, state representative from the 117th district (2017–present)[109]
- Aicha Davis, state representative from the 109th district (2025–present)[109]
- Sarah Eckhardt, state senator from the 14th district (2021–present)[109]
- Lulu Flores, state representative from the 51st district (2023–present)[109]
- Erin Gamez, state representative from the 38th district (2022–present)[109]
- Josey Garcia, state representative from the 124th district (2023–present)[109]
- Linda Garcia, state representative from the 107th district (2025–present)[109]
- Cassandra Hernandez, state representative from the 115th district (2025–present)[109]
- Roland Gutierrez, state senator from the 19th district (2021–present)[109]
- Donna Howard, state representative from the 48th district (2006–present)[109]
- Ann Johnson, state representative from the 134th district (2021–present)[109]
- Christian Manuel, state representative from the 22nd district (2023–present)[110]
- Mando Martinez, state representative from the 39th district (2005–present)[109]
- Terry Meza, state representative from the 105th district (2019–present)[109]
- Christina Morales, state representative from the 145th district (2019–present)[109]
- Eddie Morales, state representative from the 74th district (2021–present)[109]
- Penny Morales Shaw, state representative from the 148th district (2021–present)[109]
- Ray Lopez, state representative from the 125th district (2019–present)[109]
- Claudia Ordaz, state representative from the 79th district (2023–present)[109]
- Mary Ann Perez, state representative from the 144th district (2017–present)[109]
- Vincent Perez, state representative from the 77th district (2025–present)[109]
- Ramon Romero Jr., state representative from the 90th district (2015–present)[109]
- Lauren Ashley Simmons, state representative from the 146th district (2025–present)[110]
- Armando Walle, state representative from the 140th district (2009–present)[109]
- Erin Zwiener, state representative from the 45th district (2019–present)[109]
- ^ "Someone else" with 4%
- ^ "Refused" with 2%
- ^ "Would not vote in that race" with 5%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 7%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 8%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 6%
- ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ "Someone else" with 9%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Standing For Texas, who support Hunt[77]
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Senate Majority PAC, which supports Democratic candidates for U.S. Senate
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Texans for a Conservative Majority PAC, which supports Cornyn
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w Poll commissioned by a pro-Hunt group
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Senate Leadership Fund, which supports Cornyn
- ^ Poll sponsored by Hunt's campaign
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by One Nation, which supports Cornyn
- ^ a b Poll conducted by a Paxton-allied super PAC.
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Trending Politics, a conservative news website
- ^ a b c Poll commissioned by the Conservative Policy Project
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Educational Freedom Institute
- ^ Poll sponsored by Texas Public Opinion Research
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by Talarico's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by Allred's campaign
References
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- ^ Jacobs, Ben (May 14, 2025). "The Republican Trainwreck of the 2026 Election Cycle". POLITICO. Retrieved May 15, 2025.
- ^ McLaughlin, Seth. "Sen. Cornyn's reelection bid faces more warning signs in new Senate primary poll". The Washington Times. Retrieved June 5, 2025.
- ^ Goodman, J. David (May 30, 2025). "Cornyn Calls Primary Fight Against Ken Paxton a 'Test of Character'". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved June 29, 2025.
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In Texas, where multiple candidates are seeking the Republican nomination, Ricketts offered an unequivocal endorsement of Senator John Cornyn. "I think our best chance to win that state is with John Cornyn," he stated. "If you don't have John Cornyn there, there's a good chance Democrats can win that seat. I'm 100 percent behind Cornyn. I endorsed him. I hope he wins the primary and that's our best path to winning Texas."
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- ^ "CLEAT Political Action Committee". CLEAT. Retrieved December 3, 2025.
- ^ a b "National Realtors PAC endorses John Cornyn for re-election". The Odessa American. November 19, 2025. Retrieved November 20, 2025.
- ^ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved April 28, 2025.
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- ^ a b LeHardy, Will (July 30, 2025). "Sen. Cornyn secures endorsement from 12 major Texas agricultural groups in Senate race". KEYE. Retrieved December 3, 2025.
- ^ "Former Texas Republican Party Chair supports Texas AG Paxton in GOP primary". CBS News. April 11, 2025. Retrieved April 22, 2025.
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- ^ "Gun Owners of America Endorses Ken Paxton for U.S. Senate". Gun Owners of America. May 21, 2025.
- ^ Altimari, Daniela (October 6, 2025). "Texas Rep. Wesley Hunt joins contentious Republican primary for Senate". Roll Call. Retrieved October 24, 2025.
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- ^ a b "Texas Senate Primary: Trouble at the Top". Quantus Insights. May 14, 2025. Retrieved May 14, 2025.
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External links
- Official campaign websites