2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings

2026 United States House of Representatives election ratings

The 2026 United States House of Representatives elections will be held on November 3, 2026, to elect representatives from all 435 congressional districts across each of the 50 U.S. states. Five of the six non-voting delegates from the District of Columbia and the inhabited U.S. territories will also be elected (Puerto Rico's delegate, the Resident Commissioner, serves four year terms and was last elected in 2024). Numerous federal, state, and local elections, including the 2026 U.S. Senate elections, will also be held on this date.

Election ratings

Latest published ratings for competitive seats

Several sites and individuals publish ratings of competitive seats. The seats listed below are considered competitive (not "safe" or "solid") by at least one of the rating groups. These ratings are based upon factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan history of the district (the Cook Partisan Voting Index (CPVI) is one example of this metric). Each rating describes the likelihood of a given outcome in the election.

In total there are 435 seats in the House of Representatives, 218 are needed for a majority, while 290 seats are needed for a two-thirds supermajority (if all members are sitting and voting).

Most election ratings use:

  • Tossup: no advantage
  • Tilt (sometimes used): very slight advantage
  • Lean: significant, but not overwhelming advantage
  • Likely: strong, but not certain advantage
  • Safe or Solid: outcome is nearly certain

The following are the latest published ratings for competitive seats.

District CPVI
[1] 		Incumbent Last result[2] Cook
Dec. 9,
2025[3] 		IE
Dec. 5,
2025[4] 		Sabato
Dec. 10,
2025[5] 		WH
Dec. 12,
2025[6]
Alaska at-large R+6 Nick Begich III 51.3% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Lean R
Arizona 1 R+1 David Schweikert
(retiring) 		51.9% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Arizona 2 R+7 Eli Crane 54.5% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Arizona 5 R+10 Andy Biggs
(retiring) 		60.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Arizona 6 EVEN Juan Ciscomani 50.0% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tilt D (flip)
California 1 D+7[a] Doug LaMalfa 65.3% R Solid D (flip) Solid D (flip) Likely D (flip) Likely D (flip)
California 3 D+6[a] Kevin Kiley (R) and
Ami Bera (D) 		55.5% R; 57.6% D Solid D (flip) Solid D (flip) Likely D (flip) Safe D (flip)
California 6 D+5[a] New seat – Solid D Likely D Safe D Safe D
California 9 D+8[a] Josh Harder 51.8% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D
California 13 D+2[a] Adam Gray 50.0% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D
California 21 D+5[a] Jim Costa 52.6% D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D
California 22 D+1[a] David Valadao 53.4% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup
California 25 D+4[a] Raul Ruiz 56.3% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
California 27 D+6[a] George Whitesides 51.3% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Safe D
California 40 R+6[a] Young Kim and
Ken Calvert 		55.3% R; 51.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
California 45 D+3[a] Derek Tran 50.1% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Likely D
California 47 D+6[a] Dave Min 51.4% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Safe D
California 48 D+2[a] Darrell Issa 59.3% R Tossup Tilt D (flip) Tossup Tilt D (flip)
California 49 D+7[a] Mike Levin 52.2% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Safe D
Colorado 3 R+5 Jeff Hurd 50.8% R Likely R Solid R Likely R Lean R
Colorado 4 R+9 Lauren Boebert 53.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Lean R
Colorado 5 R+5 Jeff Crank 54.7% R Solid R Likely R Likely R Tilt R
Colorado 8 EVEN Gabe Evans 49.0% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Connecticut 5 D+3 Jahana Hayes 53.4% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Florida 4 R+5 Aaron Bean 57.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Florida 7 R+5 Cory Mills 56.5% R Solid R Likely R Safe R Likely R
Florida 9 D+4 Darren Soto 55.1% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Florida 13 R+5 Anna Paulina Luna 54.8% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Florida 15 R+5 Laurel Lee 56.2% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Florida 23 D+2 Jared Moskowitz 52.4% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D
Georgia 1 R+8 Buddy Carter
(retiring) 		62.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Georgia 10 R+11 Mike Collins
(retiring) 		63.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Illinois 8 D+5 Raja Krishnamoorthi
(retiring) 		57.1% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D
Illinois 17 D+3 Eric Sorensen 54.4% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Indiana 1 D+1 Frank J. Mrvan 53.4% D Likely D Lean D Lean D Likely D
Iowa 1 R+4 Mariannette Miller-Meeks 50.1% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Iowa 2 R+4 Ashley Hinson
(retiring) 		57.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Tilt R
Iowa 3 R+2 Zach Nunn 51.9% R Lean R Lean R Tossup Tossup
Kansas 3 D+2 Sharice Davids 53.4% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Kentucky 6 R+7 Andy Barr
(retiring) 		63.0% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Lean R
Maine 2 R+4 Jared Golden
(retiring) 		50.3% D Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Lean R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Maryland 6 D+3 April McClain Delaney 53.1% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Michigan 3 D+4 Hillary Scholten 53.7% D Likely D Solid D Safe D Safe D
Michigan 4 R+3 Bill Huizenga 55.1% R Likely R Lean R Likely R Lean R
Michigan 7 EVEN Tom Barrett 50.3% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Michigan 8 R+1 Kristen McDonald Rivet 51.2% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D
Michigan 10 R+3 John James
(retiring) 		51.1% R Lean R Tilt R Tossup Tossup
Minnesota 1 R+6 Brad Finstad 58.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Minnesota 2 D+3 Angie Craig
(retiring) 		55.6% D Likely D Likely D Lean D Lean D
Minnesota 8 R+7 Pete Stauber 58.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Missouri 2 TBD[a] Ann Wagner 54.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Missouri 5 TBD[a] Emanuel Cleaver 60.2% D Solid D [b] Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip)
Montana 1 R+5 Ryan Zinke 52.3% R Likely R Solid R Likely R Lean R
Nebraska 1 R+6 Mike Flood 60.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Nebraska 2 D+3 Don Bacon
(retiring) 		50.9% R Lean D (flip) Tilt D (flip) Lean D (flip) Lean D (flip)
Nevada 1 D+2 Dina Titus 52.0% D Likely D Lean D Likely D Likely D
Nevada 2 R+7 Mark Amodei 55.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Nevada 3 D+1 Susie Lee 51.4% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D
Nevada 4 D+2 Steven Horsford 52.7% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
New Hampshire 1 D+2 Chris Pappas
(retiring) 		54.0% D Likely D Lean D Lean D Lean D
New Hampshire 2 D+2 Maggie Goodlander 53.0% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
New Jersey 2 R+5 Jeff Van Drew 58.0% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
New Jersey 5 D+2 Josh Gottheimer 54.6% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Likely D
New Jersey 7 EVEN Thomas Kean Jr. 51.8% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup
New Jersey 9 D+2 Nellie Pou 50.8% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D
New Jersey 11 D+5 Mikie Sherrill 56.5% D Solid D Solid D Safe D Likely D
New Mexico 2 EVEN Gabe Vasquez 52.1% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D
New York 1 R+4 Nick LaLota 55.2% R Solid R Solid R Likely R Lean R
New York 2 R+6 Andrew Garbarino 59.8% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
New York 3 EVEN Tom Suozzi 51.8% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Lean D
New York 4 D+2 Laura Gillen 51.1% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Lean D
New York 17 D+1 Mike Lawler 52.2% R Lean R Tossup Lean R Tossup
New York 18 D+2 Pat Ryan 57.2% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
New York 19 D+1 Josh Riley 51.1% D Lean D Lean D Lean D Likely D
New York 21 R+10 Elise Stefanik
(retiring) 		62.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
New York 22 D+4 John Mannion 54.6% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
North Carolina 1 R+5[a] Don Davis 49.5% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup
North Carolina 3 R+6[a] Greg Murphy 77.4% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
North Carolina 7 R+7[a] David Rouzer 58.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
North Carolina 9 R+8[a] Richard Hudson 56.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
North Carolina 11 R+5[a] Chuck Edwards 56.8% R Likely R Solid R Safe R Lean R
Ohio 1 R+1[a] Greg Landsman 54.6% D Tossup Tossup Tossup Tilt D
Ohio 7 R+5[a] Max Miller 51.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Ohio 9 R+5[a] Marcy Kaptur 48.3% D Lean R (flip) Tilt R (flip) Lean R (flip) Tossup
Ohio 10 R+4[a] Mike Turner 57.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Ohio 13 D+2[a] Emilia Sykes 51.1% D Lean D Likely D Lean D Lean D
Ohio 15 R+5[a] Mike Carey 56.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Oregon 4 D+6 Val Hoyle 51.7% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Safe D
Oregon 5 D+4 Janelle Bynum 47.7% D Likely D Solid D Likely D Likely D
Oregon 6 D+6 Andrea Salinas 53.3% D Solid D Solid D Likely D Safe D
Pennsylvania 1 D+1 Brian Fitzpatrick 56.4% R Likely R Lean R Lean R Tossup
Pennsylvania 7 R+1 Ryan Mackenzie 50.5% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Pennsylvania 8 R+4 Rob Bresnahan 50.8% R Lean R Tilt R Lean R Tilt R
Pennsylvania 10 R+3 Scott Perry 50.6% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup
Pennsylvania 17 D+3 Chris Deluzio 53.9% D Likely D Likely D Likely D Likely D
South Carolina 1 R+6 Nancy Mace
(retiring) 		58.3% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Lean R
South Carolina 2 R+7 Joe Wilson 59.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
South Carolina 5 R+11 Ralph Norman
(retiring) 		63.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Tennessee 5 R+8 Andy Ogles 56.8% R Solid R Likely R Solid R Solid R
Tennessee 7 R+10 Matt Van Epps 53.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Texas 9 R+9[a] New seat – Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip) Lean R (flip)
Texas 10 R+10[a] Michael McCaul
(retiring) 		63.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Texas 15 R+7[a] Monica De La Cruz 57.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Likely R
Texas 21 R+10[a] Chip Roy
(retiring) 		61.8% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Texas 22 R+11[a] Troy Nehls
(retiring) 		62.1% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Texas 28 R+3[a] Henry Cuellar 52.8% D Lean D Tilt D Lean D Tossup
Texas 32 R+8[a] New seat – Solid R (flip) Solid R (flip) Safe R (flip) Likely R (flip)
Texas 34 R+3[a] Vicente Gonzalez 51.3% D Lean R (flip) Tossup Tossup Tossup
Texas 35 R+4[a] New seat – Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Likely R (flip) Tilt R (flip)
Texas 38 R+10[a] Wesley Hunt
(retiring) 		62.9% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Virginia 1 R+3 Rob Wittman 56.4% R Lean R Lean R Likely R Lean R
Virginia 2 EVEN Jen Kiggans 50.8% R Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup
Virginia 5 R+6 John McGuire 57.5% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Virginia 7 D+2 Eugene Vindman 51.3% D Lean D Lean D Likely D Likely D
Washington 3 R+2 Marie Gluesenkamp Perez 51.7% D Tossup Tilt D Lean D Tilt D
Washington 5 R+5 Michael Baumgartner 60.7% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Washington 8 D+3 Kim Schrier 54.1% D Likely D Solid D Safe D Likely D
Wisconsin 1 R+2 Bryan Steil 54.1% R Likely R Likely R Likely R Tilt R
Wisconsin 3 R+3 Derrick Van Orden 51.4% R Tossup Tilt R Tossup Tossup
Wisconsin 7 R+11 Tom Tiffany
(retiring) 		63.6% R Solid R Solid R Safe R Likely R
Overall D – 208
R – 210
17 tossups 		D – 212
R – 213
10 tossups 		D – 211
R – 208
16 tossups 		D - 213
R - 204
19 tossups

Party listings

The two parties' campaign committees (the National Republican Congressional Committee and Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee) published their own lists of targeted seats.

Republican-held seats

On April 8, 2025, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee released their target seat list which included Republican-held seats and open seats.[7] On December 10, 2025, the list was revised adding four districts (CA-48, FL-15, NC-3, and NC-11) and removing two (CA-40 and CA-41).[8]

  1. Alaska 1: Nick Begich III
  2. Arizona 1: Open seat
  3. Arizona 2: Eli Crane
  4. Arizona 6: Juan Ciscomani
  5. California 22: David Valadao
  6. California 48: Darrell Issa
  7. Colorado 8: Gabe Evans
  8. Florida 7: Cory Mills
  9. Florida 13: Anna Paulina Luna
  10. Florida 15: Laurel Lee
  11. Florida 27: Maria Elvira Salazar
  12. Iowa 1: Mariannette Miller-Meeks
  13. Iowa 2: Open seat
  14. Iowa 3: Zach Nunn
  15. Kentucky 6: Open seat
  16. Michigan 4: Bill Huizenga
  17. Michigan 7: Tom Barrett
  18. Michigan 10: Open seat
  19. Missouri 2: Ann Wagner
  20. Nebraska 2: Open seat
  21. New Jersey 7: Thomas Kean Jr.
  22. New York 17: Mike Lawler
  23. North Carolina 3: Greg Murphy
  24. North Carolina 11: Chuck Edwards
  25. Ohio 7: Max Miller
  26. Ohio 10: Mike Turner
  27. Ohio 15: Mike Carey
  28. Pennsylvania 1: Brian Fitzpatrick
  29. Pennsylvania 7: Ryan Mackenzie
  30. Pennsylvania 8: Rob Bresnahan
  31. Pennsylvania 10: Scott Perry
  32. Tennessee 5: Andy Ogles
  33. Texas 15: Monica De La Cruz
  34. Virginia 1: Rob Wittman
  35. Virginia 2: Jen Kiggans
  36. Wisconsin 1: Bryan Steil
  37. Wisconsin 3: Derrick Van Orden

Democratic-held seats

On March 17, 2025, the National Republican Congressional Committee released their target seat list which included Democratic-held seats and open seats.[9] The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also released its frontline members, which are bolded below, and the ones not bolded are seats targeted by the Republican committee but not in the Democratic committee frontline program:

  1. California 9: Josh Harder
  2. California 13: Adam Gray
  3. California 27: George Whitesides
  4. California 45: Derek Tran
  5. California 47: Dave Min
  6. Florida 9: Darren Soto
  7. Florida 23: Jared Moskowitz
  8. Indiana 1: Frank Mrvan
  9. Maine 2: Open seat
  10. Michigan 8: Kristen McDonald Rivet
  11. North Carolina 1: Don Davis
  12. New Hampshire 1: Open seat
  13. New Jersey 9: Nellie Pou
  14. New Mexico 2: Gabe Vasquez
  15. Nevada 1: Dina Titus
  16. Nevada 3: Susie Lee
  17. Nevada 4: Steven Horsford
  18. New York 3: Tom Suozzi
  19. New York 4: Laura Gillen
  20. New York 19: Josh Riley
  21. Ohio 9: Marcy Kaptur
  22. Ohio 13: Emilia Sykes
  23. Texas 28: Henry Cuellar
  24. Texas 34: Vicente Gonzalez
  25. Virginia 7: Eugene Vindman
  26. Washington 3: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez


Notes

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak State enacted a new congressional map after the most recent publication of the Cook PVI.
  2. ^ Prediction was made before recent redistricting.

References

  1. ^ "2025 Cook PVI℠: District Map and List (119th Congress)". The Cook Political Report. April 3, 2025. Retrieved April 3, 2025.
  2. ^ "Election 2024: House results". CNN. Retrieved March 7, 2025.
  3. ^ "2026 CPR House Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved November 14, 2025.
  4. ^ "2026 House Ratings". Inside elections. Retrieved December 6, 2025.
  5. ^ "2026 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 10, 2025.
  6. ^ "The 2026 House Forecast". Race to the WH. Retrieved October 8, 2025.
  7. ^ rice@dccc.org (April 8, 2025). "DCCC Announces 2026 Districts in Play". DCCC. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
  8. ^ iwata@dccc.org (December 10, 2025). "DCCC Expands the Battlefield in 2026 with New Offensive Targets". DCCC. Retrieved December 11, 2025.
  9. ^ Marinella, Mike (March 17, 2025). "NRCC Targets 26 Offensive Seats to Expand House Majority". NRCC. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
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