2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election
November 3, 2026
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The 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election will take place on November 3, 2026, to elect the governor of Pennsylvania. Primary elections will be held on May 19, 2026.[1] Incumbent Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro is eligible to run for election to a second term but has not yet stated if he will do so. This will be one of five Democratic-held governorships up for election in 2026 in a state that Donald Trump won in the 2024 presidential election.
Background
Pennsylvania is a purple state located in the Northeastern United States. A part of the Rust Belt, it was narrowly won by Republican Donald Trump in his non-consecutive second victory in 2024 after similarly narrow victories by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020 and Trump's first election in 2016.
The state has a Democratic and Republican senator, making it one of only three states to have a split Senate delegation[a], while Republicans hold a majority in the state's House delegation, with ten seats to the Democrats' seven.[2]
Democrats also control the Pennsylvania House of Representatives while Republicans control the Pennsylvania Senate.[3]
Incumbent Democratic governor Josh Shapiro was first elected with 56.5% of the vote in 2022, succeeding term-limited Democrat Tom Wolf.
Democratic primary
Governor
Candidates
Potential
- Josh Shapiro, incumbent governor (2023–present)
Declined
- Bob Casey Jr., former U.S. Senator (2007–2025) and son of former governor Bob Casey Sr.[4]
Endorsements
Josh Shapiro
- Organizations
Lieutenant governor
Potential
- Austin Davis, incumbent lieutenant governor (2023–present)
Republican primary
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvania State Treasurer (2021–present)[6]
- John Ventre, former Pennsylvania director for the Mutual UFO Network and perennial candidate[7]
Publicly expressed interest
- Doug Mastriano, state senator from SD-33 (2019–present) and nominee for governor in 2022 (decision expected January 2026)[8]
Declined
- Scott Martin, state senator from SD-13 (2017–present) and candidate for governor in 2022[9] (endorsed Garrity)[10]
- Dan Meuser, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 9th congressional district (2019–present) (running for re-election, endorsed Garrity)[11][12]
- Dave Sunday, Pennsylvania Attorney General (2025–present)[13] (endorsed Garrity)[14]
- Glenn Thompson, U.S. representative from Pennsylvania's 15th congressional district (2009–present)[15] (endorsed Garrity)[16]
- Mike Turzai, former Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2015–2020) from the 28th district (2001–2020)[13]
Endorsements
Stacy Garrity
- U.S. senators
- Rick Santorum, Pennsylvania (1995–2007)[17]
- U.S. representatives
- Rob Bresnahan, PA-08 (2025–present)[18]
- Dan Meuser, PA-09 (2019–present)[12]
- Lloyd Smucker, PA-11 (2017–present)[19]
- Glenn Thompson, PA-15 (2009–present)[16]
- Statewide officials
- Tom Corbett, former governor of Pennsylvania (2011–2015)[20]
- Timothy DeFoor, Pennsylvania auditor general (2021–present)[21]
- Dave Sunday, Pennsylvania attorney general (2025–present)[14]
- State legislators
- Scott Martin, state senator from the 13th district (2017–present)[10]
- Joe Pittman, majority leader of the Pennsylvania Senate (2022–present) from the 41st district (2019–present)[10]
- Jim Struzzi, state representative from the 62nd district (2018–present)[10]
- Jesse Topper, minority leader of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives (2025–present) from the 78th district (2014–present)[10]
- Kim Ward, president pro tempore of the Pennsylvania Senate (2022–present) from the 39th district (2009–present)[22]
- Martina White, state representative from the 170th district (2015–present)[10]
- Political parties
Dan Meuser (declined)
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th and 47th president of the United States (2017–2021, 2025–present)[24]
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Stacy Garrity |
Doug Mastriano |
Scott Perry |
Kristin Phillips-Hill |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[25] | September 18–19, 2025 | 524 (V) | ± 4.3% | 20% | 39% | – | – | 41% |
| City & State[26] | April 8, 2024 | 240 (RV) | 7% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 80% |
Lieutenant governor
Publicly expressed interest
- Doug Mastriano, state senator from SD-33 (2019–present) and nominee for governor in 2022[27]
Libertarian convention
Governor
Candidates
Declared
- Ken Krawchuk, member of the Libertarian Party Judicial Committee, perennial candidate, and nominee for governor in 1998, 2002, and 2018[28]
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[29] | Likely D | September 11, 2025 |
| Inside Elections[30] | Likely D | August 28, 2025 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] | Likely D | September 4, 2025 |
| Race to the WH[32] | Safe D | September 30, 2025 |
Polling
Josh Shapiro vs. Stacy Garrity
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Josh Shapiro (D) |
Stacy Garrity (R) |
Other/ |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[33] | September 22–29, 2025 | November 24, 2025 | 54.3% | 37.9% | 7.8% | Shapiro +16.4% |
| RealClearPolitics[34] | September 22–29, 2025 | November 24, 2025 | 54.5% | 37.5% | 8.0% | Shapiro +17.0% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro (D) |
Stacy Garrity (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[35] | September 25–29, 2025 | 1,579 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 55% | 39% | 1% | 5% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[36] | September 22–28, 2025 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 54% | 36% | – | 9% |
Hypothetical polling
Josh Shapiro vs. Doug Mastriano
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Josh Shapiro (D) |
Doug Mastriano (R) |
Other/ |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[33] | September 22–29, 2025 | November 24, 2025 | 55.3% | 38.4% | 6.3% | Shapiro +16.9% |
| RealClearPolitics[37] | September 22–29, 2025 | November 24, 2025 | 55.5% | 38.0% | 6.5% | Shapiro +17.5% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro (D) |
Doug Mastriano (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinnipiac University[35] | September 25–29, 2025 | 1,579 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 56% | 39% | – | 5% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[38] | September 22–28, 2025 | 704 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 55% | 37% | – | 7% |
See also
Notes
- ^ The other two are Maine, with an independent who caucuses with the Democrats and a Republican, and Wisconsin, with a Democrat and a Republican.
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
References
- ^ "2026 State Primary Election Dates". National Conference of State Legislatures. September 26, 2025. Retrieved September 27, 2025.
- ^ "119th Congress Smashes Record Low for Number of Split US Senate Delegations". No. Smart Politics. November 19, 2024. Retrieved September 4, 2025.
- ^ "Democrats will again control Pennsylvania House after holding on to one-seat majority". Spotlight PA. November 8, 2024. Retrieved September 4, 2025.
- ^ Swartz, Katherine (December 31, 2024). "'The Feistiest I've Ever Seen Him': Inside Bob Casey's Final Days in the Senate". NOTUS. Retrieved December 31, 2024.
Gov. Josh Shapiro is up for reelection in 2026, but if he runs for president over another term in Harrisburg, Casey said he's not interested in vying for the job
- ^ "Jewish Dems Endorsed Candidates". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved November 16, 2025.
- ^ Levy, Marc (August 18, 2025). "Republican Stacy Garrity seeks to challenge Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro's reelection bid". Associated Press. Retrieved August 18, 2025.
- ^ Stockburger, George; Owens, Dennis (August 21, 2025). "'Underdog' Garrity outlines vision for Pennsylvania in Governor's Race". WHTM-TV. Retrieved August 24, 2025.
- ^ Stockburger, George (November 11, 2025). "Doug Mastriano still considering run for governor". abc27. Retrieved November 14, 2025.
- ^ White, Jaxon (April 4, 2025). "State Sen. Scott Martin doesn't rule out potential entrance into 2026 governor's race". Lancaster Online. Retrieved April 4, 2025.
- ^ a b c d e f Ulrich, Steve (August 25, 2025). "Garrity Consolidates PA GOP Leaders Around Gubernatorial Campaign". PoliticsPA. Retrieved August 25, 2025.
- ^ Toth, Matthew (July 9, 2025). "'My focus needs to remain on doing my job': Rep. Meuser won't run for Pa governor in 2026". Lebanon Daily News. Retrieved July 9, 2025.
- ^ a b Lindenmuth, Kaylee; Stockburger, George (August 20, 2025). "U.S. Rep. Meuser backs Garrity for Governor". WHTM-TV.
- ^ a b McGoldrick, Gillian (December 8, 2024). "U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser is considering a run for Pa. governor in 2026 — and Treasurer Stacy Garrity isn't ruling one out". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved December 8, 2024.
- ^ a b Prose, J.D. (December 10, 2025). "Pa. AG Dave Sunday endorses Treasurer Stacy Garrity for governor". PennLive. Retrieved December 11, 2025.
- ^ Cole, John (March 13, 2025). "Q&A: Congressman Glenn Thompson talks tariffs, SNAP, and immigration's impact on agriculture". Pennsylvania Capital-Star. Retrieved March 13, 2025.
Thompson: I would be honored to serve the state of Pennsylvania as governor, but I do think at this point in time with where I'm at in Congress that my best leadership and service for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania is right here in Washington, DC.
- ^ a b "Thompson endorses Garrity for governor". The Express. September 3, 2025. Retrieved September 7, 2025.
- ^ https://pierced-hearts.com/2025/12/12/former-u-s-senator-and-presidential-candidate-rick-santorum-endorses-garrity-for-governor/
- ^ Rob Bresnahan (September 27, 2025). Stacy Garrity for Governor rally with Congressman Rob Bresnahan, September 26, 2025. Monroe County Republican Party of PA. Retrieved November 29, 2025.
- ^ "U.S. Rep. Lloyd Smucker endorses Treasurer Stacy Garrity for governor". Lancaster Online. September 10, 2025. Retrieved September 10, 2025.
- ^ DeJesus, Ivey (September 17, 2025). "Former Gov. Tom Corbett endorses Republican Stacy Garrity in Pa. governor's race". PennLive.com. Retrieved September 17, 2025.
- ^ https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/news/garrity-receives-endorsement-from-auditor-general-tim-defoor/ar-AA1SaVSu?ocid=BingNewsSerp
- ^ Turner, Ford (July 27, 2025). "GOP field begins to emerge in 2026 race for Pennsylvania Governor". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved August 14, 2025.
- ^ Schneider, Aliya (September 20, 2025). "Stacy Garrity gets state GOP endorsement for governor: 'Help is on the way.'". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved September 21, 2025.
- ^ Samuels, Brett (May 30, 2025). "Trump says he would back GOP Rep. Meuser for Pennsylvania governor bid". The Hill. Retrieved June 4, 2025.
- ^ Kail, Benjamin (September 24, 2025). "Pennsylvania Republican primary voters favor Mastriano over Garrity by wide margin, poll suggests". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Archived from the original on September 24, 2025. Retrieved September 26, 2025.
- ^ Cole, John (April 8, 2024). "Straw poll from Pennsylvania Leadership Conference offers early look at future GOP nominees". City & State Pennsylvania.
- ^ McGoldrick, Gillian (March 28, 2025). "Garrity-Mastriano 2026? Doug Mastriano floats teaming up with Stacy Garrity to beat Dan Meuser in GOP primary for Pa. governor". The Philadelphia Inquirer. Retrieved March 29, 2025.
- ^ Pelullo, Antonio (June 9, 2023). "Libertarian Candidate for Governor Visiting Butler". Butler Radio Network. Retrieved June 13, 2023.
- ^ "2026 CPR Governor Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 23, 2025.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 7, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Governor". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved May 1, 2025.
- ^ "Governor Forecast - 2026-2026". Race to the WH. Retrieved June 30, 2025.
- ^ a b "2026 Governor Polling". Race to the White House. Retrieved November 24, 2025.
- ^ "2026 Pennsylvania Governor - Garrity vs. Shapiro". RealClearPolitics.com. Retrieved November 24, 2025.
- ^ a b "Pennsylvania Gov. Shapiro Hits 60% Job Approval, Leads Republicans In 2026, 2028 Matchups, Quinnipiac University Pennsylvania Poll Finds; Dems Sour On Fetterman While GOP Voters Approve Of Him". Quinnipiac University. October 1, 2025. Retrieved October 1, 2025.
- ^ @SusquehannaPR (October 7, 2025). "In SP&R's latest PA poll, Gov. Shapiro leads "presumptive" GOP nominee S. Garrity by a 54:36 margin. But most of undecided vote is GOP - suggesting Garrity has plenty of room to grow as she continues to build name awareness... Field Dates 9/22-9/28; Sample 700 LV: MoE +/-3.7%" (Tweet). Retrieved October 7, 2025 – via Twitter.
- ^ "2026 Pennsylvania Governor - Mastriano vs. Shapiro". RealClearPolitics.com. Retrieved November 24, 2025.
- ^ @SusquehannaPR (October 6, 2025). "Today SP&R releases PA Poll showing hypothetical h2h for Pa Gov ('26) w/ Gov. Shapiro leading former GOP rival D. Mastriano 55:37. Mastriano lost to Shapiro by 15 pts. in '22. Will S. Garrity do better? Find out tomorrow... Field Dates 9/22-9/28; Sample 704 LV; MoE: +/-3.7%" (Tweet). Retrieved October 7, 2025 – via Twitter.
External links
- Official campaign websites