Proposed United States invasion of Venezuela

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During the first and second presidencies of Donald Trump, the possibility of a United States–led invasion of Venezuela was discussed. Essentially no experts or analysts envisioned a ground invasion happening.

In 2017, Trump said that he was "not going to rule out a military option" to address the worsening crisis in Venezuela and the autocratic regime of Nicolás Maduro. Trump also had asked senior advisors about invading Venezuela, which was strongly recommended against by National Security Advisor H. R. McMaster, and the Trump administration instead opted for a campaign of sanctions and diplomatic pressure against Venezuela.

In August 2025, during the second Trump presidency, the United States surged military assets to the Caribbean, citing the fight against drug cartels as its stated objective. Experts, analysts and current and former government officials stated that the assets deployed were insufficient for an invasion and that they viewed an invasion as unlikely.

First Trump presidency (2017–2021)

According to the Associated Press, within the framework of the crisis in Venezuela, unnamed administration officials stated that an intervention was raised in 2017 to Donald Trump's advisors, including US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and national security advisor H. R. McMaster (who left the Trump administration from that moment on) and later to several presidents of Latin American countries including Juan Manuel Santos.[1] Gustavo Petro, president of Colombia, declared in May 2023 that Trump had made a proposal to then-president Iván Duque to invade Venezuela through Colombia, but that his advisors had stopped him.[2] On both occasions, everyone present asked Trump not to proceed with the plan.[1]

On the possibility of intervention in Venezuela during the Venezuelan presidential crisis, Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, Kimberly Breier said: "Although our policy is based on a peaceful transition, we have made it very clear that all options are on the table."[3] John Bolton, National Security advisor at the time, published in a 2020 book, The Room Where It Happened, that Trump said that invading Venezuela would be "cool" because it is "really part of the United States".[4] In his 2019 memoir, The Threat, former Deputy Director of the FBI, Andrew McCabe, quotes Trump as saying of Venezuela "That’s the country we should be going to war with, they have all that oil and they’re right on our back door.”[5] In June 2023, Trump said at a press conference in North Carolina, "When I left, Venezuela was about to collapse. We would have taken over it, we would have kept all that oil."[6]

Trump stated on 11 August 2017 that he is "not going to rule out a military option" to confront the autocratic government of Nicolás Maduro and the deepening crisis in Venezuela.[7] CNN wrote in July 2018 that a senior administration official stated that, in an August 2017 meeting about imposing diplomatic and financial sanctions on Venezuela, Trump asked senior advisers about the possibility of invading Venezuela. Then-National Security Advisor H. R. McMaster and other aides strongly advised against military action, warning that it could backfire and that regional allies opposed such measures. The official emphasized that there was "no imminent plan" for an invasion, describing Trump's remarks as thinking "out loud". Trump's comments were first reported by the Associated Press and came a day before he publicly stated that a "military option" against Venezuela remained possible.[8]

An Argentine online paper wrote in August 2020 that Senator Marco Rubio had suggested a U.S. invasion of Venezuela during at least two meetings with senior White House officials, aiming to secure President Trump's Latino vote in Florida ahead of the 2020 presidential election. Vice President Mike Pence and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo opposed the proposal, rejecting the use of military force. This disagreement was among the reasons Bolton resigned as National Security Advisor.[9]

Trump raised the issue with Latin American leaders on the sidelines of the 72nd session of the United Nations General Assembly, though they uniformly rejected the idea. The Trump administration subsequently pursued a policy of sanctions and diplomatic pressure on Venezuela while continuing to call for free and fair elections.[8]

One week after U.S. federal prosecutors indicted Maduro on narcoterrorism charges, Trump announced at a White House press conference in April 2020 that the U.S. was deploying Navy destroyers, surveillance aircraft, and additional military personnel to the Caribbean near Venezuela; the Associated Press reported that there was "no indication ... that any sort of U.S. invasion is being planned".[10]

Trump said on Fox News in May 2020 that "If we ever did anything with Venezuela", in that case, "it would be called 'invasion'", explaining: "if I wanted to go into Venezuela I wouldn't make a secret about it", and "I wouldn't send a small, little group, no, no, no. It would be called an army".[11]

Second Trump presidency (2025–present)

Further information: 2025 United States naval deployment in the Caribbean, 2025 United States military strikes on alleged drug traffickers, and Operation Southern Spear

The US began deploying naval assets to the Caribbean in August 2025 with the stated goal of opposing drug cartels; the Associated Press reported that the "U.S. government has not signaled any planned land incursion from the thousands of personnel being deployed, and analysts and current and former government officials see no possibility of an invasion in Venezuela".[12][13] Maduro responded to the deployment by mobilizing over four million soldiers of the Bolivarian Militia across Venezuela,[13] while saying that the country was at "maximum preparedness" for a possible American attack.[14]

CNN reported in September 2025 that Trump was considering a range of options for military strikes against drug cartels operating on Venezuelan soil, including potential targets inside the country, as part of a broader strategy aimed at weakening Maduro, according to multiple sources briefed on the administration's plans.[15]

Analysis

The Wall Street Journal reported that there were too few U.S. naval and air assets in the Caribbean as of October 2025 to carry out an invasion, and a military expert from Center for Strategic and International Studies said there were too few troops deployed by a factor of between 5 and 20.[16]

International relations professor Stephen Kinzer compared the idea of invading Venezuela to arrest Nicolás Maduro on US drug trafficking charges to the actual 1989 United States invasion of Panama, in which it arrested Manuel Noriega on US drug trafficking charges. In September 2025, Kinzer warned against thinking such an operation would be as easy, given the US had many troops based in the Panama Canal Zone, and that Panama was a much smaller country with a smaller military. Both Maduro and Noriega attracted ire for anti-American stances, though Noriega had previously collaborated with the US Central Intelligence Agency and had been offered the option to quietly leave power.[17]

Shannon K. O'Neil from the Council on Foreign Relations opined in 2018 that an American military intervention in Venezuela would "be a disaster". She assessed that the United States would need over 100,000 troops to invade the country and that American troops would have to deal with Venezuela's destroyed infrastructure, armed militias, local drug cartels, and the blame from international observers if they were unable to rebuild the nation.[18]

Al Jazeera stated on 5 December 2025 that "what nearly all experts have ruled out is a ground invasion".[19]

Reactions

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado was asked in a press conference after receiving the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize if she supported a United States invasion. She replied that "Venezuela has already been invaded", listing the presence of Russian and Iranian agents, Colombian drug groups, and Hamas and Hezbollah "operating freely in accordance with the regime", turning "Venezuela into the criminal hub of the Americas". She alleged that "what sustains the regime" is funding "from drug trafficking, from the black market of oil, from arms trafficking, and from human trafficking. We need to cut those flows."[20]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b Goodman, Joshua; Colvin, Jill (6 August 2018). "El día que Donald Trump sugirió a sus asesores invadir Venezuela" [The day Donald Trump suggested to his advisors that they invade Venezuela]. Clarín (in Spanish). Associated Press.
  2. ^ López, Oscar Mauricio (3 May 2023). "Gustavo Petro confirmó que 'En el gobierno de Trump se habló de invadir a Venezuela a través de Colombia" [Gustavo Petro confirmed that 'During the Trump administration, there was talk of invading Venezuela through Colombia.']. Infobae (in Spanish).
  3. ^ Pardo, Pablo (4 February 2019). "¿Cómo sería una invasión de Estados Unidos en Venezuela?" [What would a US invasion of Venezuela look like?]. El Mundo (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 October 2023.
  4. ^ "Trump dijo que invadir Venezuela sería 'genial', según su exasesor de seguridad nacional" [Trump said invading Venezuela would be 'cool', according to his former national security advisor.] (in Spanish). Reuters. 17 June 2020.
  5. ^ "Andrew McCabe claims Trump wanted war in Venezuela because "they have all that oil"". 20 February 2019.
  6. ^ "Donald Trump generó polémica al hablar sobre Venezuela: 'Nos hubiéramos quedado con todo ese petróleo'" [Donald Trump sparked controversy when speaking about Venezuela: 'We would have kept all that oil']. La Nación (in Spanish). 12 June 2023.
  7. ^ "Trump won't 'rule out a military option' in Venezuela". The Washington Post. 11 August 2017. Retrieved 12 August 2017.
  8. ^ a b Diamond, Jeremy (5 July 2018). "Trump asked advisers about invading Venezuela in 2017". CNN. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  9. ^ Merlo, Milton (24 August 2020). "Marco Rubio agita al War Room de Trump: pide invadir Venezuela para asegurar los votos de Florida" [Marco Rubio stirs up Trump's War Room: calls for invading Venezuela to secure Florida votes]. La Política Online (in Spanish). Buenos Aires, Argentina. Retrieved 25 August 2025.
  10. ^ Goodman, Joshua (2 April 2020). "Trump: US to deploy anti-drug Navy ships near Venezuela". Militarytimes.com. Sightline Media Group. Associated Press. Retrieved 16 September 2025.
  11. ^ "Trump: si decido actuar en Venezuela será con una 'invasión'" [Trump: if I decide to act in Venezuela, it will be with an 'invasion']. Deutsche Welle (in Spanish). 8 May 2020.
  12. ^ Regina Garcia Cano; Konstantin Toropin (29 August 2025). "US warships in South America and the reaction in Venezuela". Navy Times. Associated Press.
  13. ^ a b Garcia Cano, Regina; Toropin, Konstantin (29 August 2025). "Why is the U.S. deploying war ships to South America? 4 things to know". PBS. Retrieved 1 September 2025.
  14. ^ Garcia Cano, Regina; Arraez, Juan (1 September 2025). "Maduro says Venezuela ready to respond to US military presence in the Caribbean". AP News. Retrieved 2 September 2025.
  15. ^ Cohen, Zachary; Atwood, Kylie; Holmes, Kristen; Treene, Alayna (5 September 2025). "Trump weighs strikes targeting cartels inside Venezuela, part of wider pressure campaign on Maduro, sources say". CNN. Retrieved 6 September 2025.
  16. ^ Roque Ruiz; Shelby Holliday; Carl Churchill (14 October 2025). "See Advanced Weaponry the U.S. Is Deploying to the Caribbean". The Wall Street Journal. ProQuest 3260774973. U.S. military buildup includes F-35B jets, reaper drones and 10,000 troops—too few to invade Venezuela but enough to support more airstrikes
  17. ^ Stephen Kinzer (17 September 2025). "Let's hope history doesn't tempt Trump to invade Venezuela". The Boston Globe.
  18. ^ O'Neil, Shannon K. (18 September 2018). "A U.S. Military Intervention in Venezuela Would be a Disaster". Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved 13 November 2025. Reprinted from Bloomberg.
  19. ^ Melimopoulos, Elizabeth (5 December 2025). "Opening 'Pandora's box': What happens if the US attacks Venezuela?". Al Jazeera. Retrieved 5 December 2005.
  20. ^ "'Venezuela has already been invaded' says Nobel Peace Prize winner Machado when asked about Trump intervention". Sky News. 11 December 2025. Retrieved 12 December 2025.
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