John E. Hales Jr.

John E. Hales Jr
Jack Hales around 2003
Born(1942-06-11)June 11, 1942
Long Beach, California, USA.
DiedMay 20, 2024(2024-05-20) (aged 81)
Star Valley Ranch, Wyoming, USA.
EducationUniversity of Utah
Known forsevere storms forecasting
SpouseSusan Hales
Children5
AwardsUS Department of Commerce Gold Medal & National Weather Association Special Lifetime Achievement Award
Scientific career
FieldsMeteorology
InstitutionsNational Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center
Websitewww.starvalleyweather.com

John Ernest Hales Jr. (June 11, 1942 – May 20, 2024)[1] was an American meteorologist specializing in severe convective storms and tornadoes.

While at the National Weather Service (NWS), Hales forecasted national severe storms at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, Oklahoma (formerly known as the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) in Kansas City, Missouri).[2] Hales served as an SPC forecaster from 1975 until his retirement in 2011.

Life and Career

Hales was born in Long Beach, California in 1942 and spent his childhood in Claremont and Whittier, CA. He attended the University of Utah, earning an M.S. (1967) degree in meteorology.[3]

Hales entered government service as a summer intern in the United States Weather Bureau (USWB) student trainee program while still an undergraduate. His first duty was at the Bakersfield,CA, airport office, where he took surface observations during the summer of 1962. In 1963, he served at the Los Angeles forecast office. While at the Los Angeles office, he participated in a local sea-breeze research project releasing pilot balloons (PIBALs) near Lake Elsinore in southern California to assess the vertical wind structure in the lower atmosphere.[3]

In 1967, upon completing graduate school, Hales resumed his career with the USWB as a weather observer at the Seattle-Tacoma airport. Two years later, he became a general forecaster at the Phoenix, AZ, Weather office, where he was responsible for creating adaptive forecasts under the guidance of the Albuquerque, NM district forecast office. In 1972, Phoenix became the state forecast office for Arizona as part of a major NWS field structure reorganization. At this time, Hales became a lead forecaster at Phoenix, serving as shift leader for all forecast and warning activities in the state while on duty.[4]

His research on the U.S. southwest monsoon resulted in promotion to national lead severe weather forecaster in 1975 at the NSSFC in Kansas City, MO. He held this position for 36 years, conducting forecasts.”[3]

SPC CAREER

Hales was an SPC lead forecaster for 36 years, from 1975 to 2011. During this period, he issued severe thunderstorm and tornado watches associated with multiple significant U.S. severe weather events.

When he retired on July 2, 2011, Hales had issued 5,540 severe thunderstorm and tornado watches.[5]

Hales was also an advocate for future products and services at the NSSFC/SPC. Historically, severe weather outlooks were issued for the current day only, and this continued from 1952 through 1985. However, as numerical weather prediction models continued to develop into the 1980s and extended the range of meteorological guidance, he was an advocate for issuing a severe weather outlook product starting two days in advance (the Day-Two Outlook). This product was instituted in 1986.[2] Hales also helped design a new, short-term Mesoscale Convective Discussion (MCD) product that addressed severe thunderstorm potential over mesoscale (roughly 200-1000 sq km) areas in the next 2-6 hours. The MCD contained technical information on topics such as storm trends and potential watch issuance in the next several hours. This (also instituted in 1986[2]) helped bridge the time gap between longer-term outlook products and short-term watches from SPC.

Research

Hales' research contributed to the understanding and prediction of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. His early work addressed Arizona monsoonal thunderstorms and tornado occurrences in the Los Angeles Basin, representing early steps towards improved forecasting of these phenomena.[6][7][8]

While stationed in Phoenix, Hales conducted foundational research on the meteorological setting of Arizona summer thunderstorms and the southwest United States monsoon. He demonstrated that the primary moisture source for desert southwest U.S. thunderstorms originates from the Pacific Ocean, transported northward through low-level moisture surges from the Gulf of California.[9] Prior to this work, it was widely accepted that moisture from either the Gulf of Mexico or the Pacific Ocean played key roles in driving the southwest monsoon. Hales' data collection and analysis showed the primary importance of moisture from the Gulf of California.

Hales also conducted early analyses of westward-moving, intense thunderstorm clusters across the Arizona desert, commonly referred to as haboobs, chubascos, or Sonora storms. By integrating satellite, radar, and surface observations, he documented the structure and movement of a particularly damaging event in 1973, contributing to scientific understanding of long-lived convective systems in desert environments.[10]

In studies of tornadoes affecting the Los Angeles Basin, Hales documented synoptic patterns and meteorological parameters associated with tornado and waterspout development in the region, enabling improved prediction of these hazards. A major contribution of this work was identifying the role of orographic forcing in shaping low-level wind field patterns that support the development of shallow supercells affecting the basin.[8]

Hales participated in additional research that advanced understanding of extreme weather events and operational severe storm forecasting. These efforts included analyses of the Kansas City flash flood of 12 September 1977[11] and the "Palm Sunday II" tornado outbreak of 1994.[12] He also developed the concept of "significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes" to classify events with greater societal impact and damage potential, including storms producing hail at least 2 inches in diameter, wind gusts of at least 75 mph, or particularly intense tornadoes rated at least EF2 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale.[13]

Hales was a key contributor to the annual NSSFC/SPC severe events technical report series, a predecessor of the current SPC web-based events archive. He also served as a mentor to students participating in the Research Experiences for Undergraduates program at the National Weather Center in Norman.

Death

Hales died on May 20,2024 due to complications from bladder cancer.[1]

Awards

Hales received the following awards:

  • 1982 – Silver Medal (Joint Organization Award), U.S. Department of Commerce.[14]
  • 2001 – Silver Medal (Joint Organization Award), U.S. Department of Commerce.[17]
  • 2004 – Gold Medal (Joint Organization Award), U.S. Department of Commerce.[18]
  • 2008 – Bronze Medal (Joint Organization Award), U.S. Department of Commerce.
  • 2009 – Bronze Medal (Joint Organization Award), U.S. Department of Commerce.
  • 2011 – NOAA Distinguished Career Award.
  • 2014 – University of Utah Department of Atmospheric Sciences Distinguished Alumni Award.[20]

See also

References

  1. ^ a b Staff, S. V. I. (29 May 2024). "Independent Obituaries: May 29, 2024". SVI-NEWS. Retrieved 1 June 2024.
  2. ^ a b c "Time Line of SELS and SPC". Historical SELS and SPC Images. Storm Prediction Center.
  3. ^ a b c "John E. Hales, University of Utah Distinguished Alumni Bio" (PDF).
  4. ^ https://atmos.utah.edu/_resources/documents/distinguished_alums_bios/Hales_Jack_Bio.pdf
  5. ^ Patrick W. Leftwich; John E. Hales Jr. (January 1990). "A dyad of papers concerning joint verification of severe local storm watches and warnings during tornado events" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on January 26, 2022. Retrieved 10 December 2025.
  6. ^ "On the Relationship of Convective Cooling to Nocturnal Thunderstorms at Phoenix" (PDF).
  7. ^ Hales, John E. (1972). "Surges of Maritime Tropical Air Northward Over the Gulf of California". Monthly Weather Review. 100 (4): 298–306. Bibcode:1972MWRv..100..298H. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1972)100<0298:SOMTAN>2.3.CO;2.
  8. ^ a b "Synoptic Features Associated with Los Angeles Tornado Occurrences" (PDF).
  9. ^ Hales, John E. (1974). "Southwestern United States Summer Monsoon Source--Gulf of Mexico or Pacific Ocean". Journal of Applied Meteorology. 13 (3): 331–342. Bibcode:1974JApMe..13..331H. doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1974)013<0331:SUSSMS>2.0.CO;2.
  10. ^ Hales, John E. (1975). "A Severe Southwest Desert Thunderstorm: 19 August 1973". Monthly Weather Review. 103 (4): 344–351. Bibcode:1975MWRv..103..344H. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1975)103<0344:ASSDTA>2.0.CO;2.
  11. ^ Hales, John E. (1978). "The Kansas City Flash Flood of 12 September 1977". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 59 (6): 706–710. Bibcode:1978BAMS...59..706H. doi:10.1175/1520-0477-59.6.706.
  12. ^ "The 27 March 1994 Tornado Outbreak in the Southeast U.S. -- The Forecast Process from a Storm Prediction Center Perspective" (PDF).
  13. ^ "The Crucial Role of Tornado Watches in the Issuance of Warnings for Significant Tornadoes" (PDF).
  14. ^ ""1982 Department of Commerce Awards Program" (PDF).
  15. ^ "List of AMS Award Winners, American Meteorological Society".
  16. ^ "List of Fellows, American Meteorological Society".
  17. ^ ""2001 Department of Commerce Awards Program" (PDF).
  18. ^ ""2004 Department of Commerce Awards Program" (PDF).
  19. ^ "List of Award Winners, National Weather Association".
  20. ^ "University of Utah Distinguished Alumni List".
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