Dickson in the 2025 Australian federal election

2025 Australian federal election (Dickson)
3 May 2025
Division of Dickson (Qld) in the House of Representatives
Opinion polls
Registered119,401[1]
Turnout92.36% ( 1.01)
  First party Second party
 
Candidate Peter Dutton Ali France
Party Liberal National Labor
Primary vote 36,628 35,502
Percentage 34.69% 33.63%
Swing 7.38 1.93
TCP 44.01% 55.99%
TCP swing 7.69 7.69
  Third party Fourth party
 
IND
Candidate Ellie Smith Vinnie Batten
Party Independent Greens
Primary vote 12,874 8,061
Percentage 12.19% 7.64%
Swing 12.19 5.36
MP before election

Peter Dutton
Liberal National

Elected MP

Ali France
Labor

An election in the Queensland electorate of Dickson took place on 3 May 2025 as part of the 2025 Australian federal election.[2] Incumbent Liberal National Party (LNP) MP Peter Dutton, who was also serving as the leader of the opposition and the leader of the Liberal Party, stood for re-election against eight candidates.[3][4]

In what several media outlets described as a "stunning" result, Dutton lost his seat to Australian Labor Party (ALP) candidate Ali France after a 7.7% two-party-preferred vote swing.[5] It was the first time that a federal opposition leader had been defeated in their own seat.[6]

Background

Main article: Division of Dickson

Peter Dutton was elected as the member for Dickson in 2001 after defeating sitting Labor MP Cheryl Kernot.[7] He was re-elected in 2004 with a positive swing, but came close to losing his seat in 2007, retaining it with a two-party-preferred (TPP) vote of 50.1% against Labor.[7]

At the 2019 federal election, Labor preselected former journalist and para-athlete Ali France as its candidate.[8] Dutton was re-elected with a 2.95% TPP swing after a stronger-than-expected showing for the LNP across Queensland.[7] In 2022, France contested Dickson again, with Dutton re-elected despite a 1.7% TPP swing.[9][10]

Candidates

Candidates are listed in the order they appeared on the ballot.[11]

Party Candidate Background
  Family First Suniti Hewett Candidate for Morayfield at the 2024 state election[12]
  Labor Ali France Candidate for Dickson in 2019 and 2022[13]
  Greens Vinnie Batten Candidate for Dickson in 2022[14]
  One Nation Joel Stevenson Maintenance industrial electrician[15]
  Liberal National Peter Dutton Member for Dickson since 2001[16]
  Trumpet of Patriots Michael Jessop Businessman[17][18]
  Independent Ellie Smith Environmental consultant[19]
  Legalise Cannabis David Zaloudek Cannabis activist[20]
  Animal Justice Maureen Brohman Primary school teacher[21]

Liberal National

Dutton was seeking a ninth term as the member for Dickson.[22] He became leader of the opposition on 30 May 2022 after the resignation of former prime minister Scott Morrison.[23]

Labor

France was announced as Labor's candidate on 11 July 2024, holding a press conference with prime minister Anthony Albanese the following day.[24][25]

Independent

Environmental consultant Ellie Smith announced her candidacy on 27 January 2025.[26] She was endorsed by Climate 200, which supported 35 "teal independent" candidates at the 2025 federal election.[27][28]

Greens

On 23 December 2024, environmental scientist and para-athlete Vinnie Batten was announced as the Greens' candidate.[29] He contested the seat in 2022.[30]

Campaign

On 18 April 2025, journalist Karen Middleton reported that the Liberals "[weren't] concerned" about the possibility of losing Dickson.[31] Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) election analyst Casey Briggs listed Dickson as one of six "potential wildcard" electorates.[32]

Endorsements

See also: Endorsements in the 2025 Australian federal election
List of endorsements in Dickson at the 2025 federal election

Peter Dutton (LNP)

Ali France (Labor)

Ellie Smith (independent)

Vinnie Batten (Greens)

  • Vote Climate One (co-endorsement)[41]

David Zaloudek (Legalise Cannabis)

  • Vote Climate One (co-endorsement)[41]

Maureen Brohman (Animal Justice)

  • Vote Climate One (co-endorsement)[41]

Did not make specific endorsement

  • Abbie Chatfield – media personality (supported voting against Dutton)[42]
  • Hannah Ferguson – CEO of Cheek Media (supported voting against Dutton)[42]

Results

This section is an excerpt from Results of the 2025 Australian federal election in Queensland § Dickson.[edit]
2025 Australian federal election: Dickson[43][44]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Liberal National Peter Dutton 36,628 34.69 −7.38
Labor Ali France 35,502 33.63 +1.93
Independent Ellie Smith 12,874 12.19 +12.19
Greens Vinnie Batten 8,061 7.64 −5.36
One Nation Joel Stevenson 4,429 4.19 −1.17
Legalise Cannabis David Zaloudek 2,950 2.79 +2.79
Family First Suniti Hewett 2,299 2.18 +2.18
Trumpet of Patriots Michael Jessop 1,900 1.80 +1.80
Animal Justice Maureen Brohman 936 0.89 +0.89
Total formal votes 105,579 95.76 −0.36
Informal votes 4,676 4.24 +0.36
Turnout 110,255 92.36 +1.01
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Ali France 59,115 55.99 +7.69
Liberal National Peter Dutton 46,464 44.01 −7.69
Labor gain from Liberal National Swing +7.69

Opinion polling

This section is an excerpt from Electorate opinion polling and projections for the 2025 Australian federal election § Division of Dickson.[edit]
Date Firm Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Primary vote 2PP vote
LNP ALP GRN ONP IND OTH LNP ALP
3 May 2025 2025 federal election 34.7% 33.6% 7.6% 4.3% 12.2% 7.7% 44.0% 56.0%
17–24 Apr 2025 YouGov[45][46] 253 ±6% 40.3% 24.2% 7.6% 5.4% 16.5% 6.0%[a] 55% 45%
18–23 Apr 2025 DemosAU[b][47] 1,053 ±4.3% 40% 27% 13% 7% 5% 8%[c] 53% 47%
10 Apr 2025 (released) Freshwater Strategy[d][48] N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 57% 43%
10 Apr 2025 (released) uComms[e][48] N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 48.3% 51.7%
9–10 Apr 2025 uComms[f][48] 854 N/a 37.6% 24.2% 10.9% N/a 12.0% 4.6% 48% 52%
27 Feb – 26 Mar 2025 YouGov (MRP)[49] 10,217 N/a 39.7% 28.8% 12.7% 8.6% 7.8% 2.4% 52.5% 47.5%
22 Jan – 12 Feb 2025 YouGov (MRP)[50] 8,732 N/a 41.3% 28.2% 12.3% 8.8% 8.2% 1.2% 53.9% 46.1%
29 Oct – 20 Nov 2024 Accent/RedBridge (MRP)[51] 4,909 N/a 48% 33% 6% N/a N/a 12% 56% 44%
10 Jul – 27 Aug 2024 Accent/RedBridge (MRP)[52] 5,976 N/a 42% 30% 9% N/a N/a 19% 55% 45%
21 May 2022 2022 federal election 42.1% 31.7% 13% 5.4% 3.9% 4.0% 51.7% 48.3%

See also

Notes

  1. ^ 1.3% for Trumpet of Patriots and 4.7% for all others.
  2. ^ The polling figures are a combined primary vote average from the electorates of Bonner, Dickson, Forde, Longman and Petrie.[47]
  3. ^ 3% for Family First, 2% for Legalise Cannabis, 2% for Trumpet of Patriots, 1% for the Australian Citizens Party, 0% for the Animal Justice Party and 0% for the Libertarian Party.
  4. ^ Commissioned by the Liberal Party.
  5. ^ Commissioned by Climate 200.
  6. ^ Commissioned by the Queensland Conservation Council.

References

  1. ^ "2025 federal election enrolment statistics". Australian Electoral Commission. 10 April 2025. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  2. ^ "Dickson – Australia 2025". The Tally Room. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  3. ^ McKay, Jack; Loftus, Tobi (5 May 2025). "Dickson voters explain why Peter Dutton lost seat to Labor's Ali France". ABC News. Archived from the original on 26 July 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  4. ^ Smee, Ben (8 May 2025). "The Peter principle: how Dutton's election campaign in Dickson went horribly wrong". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  5. ^ Davis, Miriah (4 May 2025). "Who is Ali France, the Labor MP who conquered Peter Dutton?". 9News. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  6. ^ Tian, Yang (4 May 2025). "Australia's opposition left reeling after crushing election defeat". BBC News. Archived from the original on 29 September 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
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  14. ^ "Vinnie Batten". Queensland Greens. Archived from the original on 29 April 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
  15. ^ "Joel Stevenson". Pauline Hanson's One Nation. Archived from the original on 2 May 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
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  17. ^ "Michael Jessop". Trumpet of Patriots. Archived from the original on 2 May 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
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  24. ^ Elks, Sarah (11 July 2024). "'Long shot to marginal': Labor's seat fightback". The Australian. Archived from the original on 11 July 2024. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
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  35. ^ Elsworth, Sophie (4 April 2025). "Scathing of Albo, would-be UK prime minister Nigel Farage backs Dutton to win federal election". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 4 December 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
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  38. ^ Stewart, Rachel; Haynes, Jessica (3 May 2025). "Who is Ali France? Meet the incoming Dickson MP who unseated Peter Dutton". ABC News. Archived from the original on 18 May 2025. Retrieved 4 December 2025.
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