Climate Coalition (COP30 proposal)

The Climate Coalition (officially Open Coalition on Compliance Carbon Markets) is the main Brazilian proposal for the United Nations Climate Conference 2025 COP30 in Belém, Brazil. The plan aims to establish a global emissions cap starting at a level close to current emissions and then gradually reducing it until reaching net zero by 2050. For any activity that generates emissions, participants would be required to purchase allowances. As the cap declines, allowance prices would rise, creating an incentive for decarbonization. A border adjustment mechanism would also be implemented and jointly governed by all participants. Lower-income countries may pay reduced amounts or be exempt from some costs, and part of the revenue would be used to support their climate-related needs.[1][2] By 15 November, 18 countries had joined including the European Union, China, Brazil.[3] The coalition is considered as one of the main results of COP 30.[4]

Planning

The proposal was considered a potential major outcome of COP30. One of the targets is to adress some problems linked to the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism. Rafael Dubeux, deputy executive secretary of Brazil's Ministry of Finance, stated: "All that is needed is a coalition strong enough to move forward. If it includes Brazil, the EU, and China, it could encourage others to join.”[1]

The coalition is supported by a group of academics around MIT. The MIT group's report proposes a carbon price floor of US$50 per tonne of CO2 equivalent for all Climate Coalition members, with border carbon adjustment. According to the report, the implementation of the plan will result in:[5]

  • Coalition members reducing emissions seven times faster than they do today.
  • Approximately USD 200 billion per year for clean-energy and social programs.
  • A moderate rise in prices in certain industries, with minimal losses for producers.

The Climate Coalition would work similarly to the G7 proposal of a climate club. The proposal is distinct from the Brazilian proposal to launch a UNFCCC / World Trade Organization forum on climate and trade.[6]

Implementation

The EU and China joined Brazil as members, as well as the UK, Canada, Chile, Mexico, Armenia, Zambia, Rwanda, Andorra, Guinea, New Zealand, Monaco, Singapore, and Norway.[7]By 15 November, 18 countries had joined.[3] The coalition is considered as one of the main results of COP 30. It is expected to advance cohesion on carbon pricing and climate action.[4] The coalition intend to begin with: "sharing best practices in monitoring, reporting and verification, and in establishing common carbon accounting standards."[8]

According to the Niskanen center the members of the coalition after COP 30, are working on "mandatory carbon pricing frameworks, incentivizing emission reduction domestically and providing a competitive edge when facing border charges on exports." This can have a strong impact on the United States of America, because 7 of them account for more than 2/3 of U.S. goods exports. Generally, the American industry is considered as low carbon, however some policies of Donald Trump are fastly destroying this advantage. For American exporters to not lose their carbon advantage, the United States needs to implement a mechanism for cutting emissions.[9]

References

  1. ^ a b "Ministry of Finance proposes global coalition for carbon market". valorinternational (in Brazilian Portuguese). 2025-09-12. Retrieved 2025-10-07.
  2. ^ Ainger, John (2025-09-23). "Brazil Lobbies EU, China to Join COP30 Carbon Market Coalition". Bloomberg.com. Retrieved 2025-10-07.
  3. ^ a b "Carbon Market Coalition Welcomes 18 Member Countries at COP30". cop30.br. Retrieved 2025-11-30.
  4. ^ a b Edwards, Holly; Morrow, Charlie. "COP30: What should you take away from Belém?". Cognito. Retrieved 3 December 2025.
  5. ^ "Building a Climate Coalition: Aligning Carbon Pricing, Trade, and Development". The Salata Institute. 2025-09-16. Retrieved 2025-10-07.
  6. ^ "COP30: An Integrated Vision for Climate Change and Trade". TESS. Retrieved 2025-10-07.
  7. ^ "Cop: EU, China join Brazil in carbon market coalition | Latest Market News". argusmedia.com. 2025-11-07. Retrieved 2025-11-30.
  8. ^ Payton, Ben (28 November 2025). "COP30: Momentum grows behind carbon markets as a climate solution". Reuters. Retrieved 3 December 2025.
  9. ^ Shen Tsai, Jia. "America's fading carbon advantage: The wake-up call from COP30". Niskanen Center. Retrieved 12 December 2025.
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