2026 Victorian state election

2026 Victorian state election
28 November 2026
All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly
All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council
45 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Jacinta Allan Jess Wilson Ellen Sandell
Party Labor Liberal/National coalition Greens
Leader since 27 September 2023 18 November 2025 23 April 2024
Leader's seat Bendigo East Kew Melbourne
Last election 56 seats, 36.66% 28 seats, 34.48%[b] 4 seats, 11.50%
Current seats 54[a] 29[c] 3[c]
Seats needed 16 42
Winning margin by electorate
Incumbent Premier

Jacinta Allan
Labor




2026 Victorian state election

The 2026 Victorian state election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect the 61st Parliament of Victoria.[2] All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) will be up for election.

The Labor government, currently led by Premier Jacinta Allan, will attempt to win a record fourth consecutive four-year term against the Liberal/National Coalition opposition, currently led by first-term MP Jess Wilson.

The election will be administered by the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).

Background

Previous election and parliament

See also: Results of the 2022 Victorian state election (Legislative Assembly); Members of the Victorian Legislative Assembly, 2022–2026; and Post-election pendulum for the 2022 Victorian state election
See also: Results of the 2022 Victorian state election (Legislative Council) and Members of the Victorian Legislative Council, 2022–2026

The Daniel Andrews-led Labor government won power in 2014 after winning a majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly at the 2014 state election. Labor has been in government for all but one term since 1999. Andrews was re-elected at the 2018 state election and again at the 2022 state election, winning 56 seats. The Liberal/National Coalition gained one seat to 28 seats, the Greens won 4 seats. In the Legislative Council, the Labor party won 15 of the 40 seats.

Daniel Andrews announced his resignation as Premier and leader of the Victorian Labor Party at a press conference on 26 September 2023; a resignation that was formally effected the following day. This precipitated a leadership election within the Labor party-room, which was won unopposed by Deputy Premier Jacinta Allan following hours of intense negotiations between members of Labor's left and right factions. Allan, of the left, was elected leader, with right-faction member and Education Minister Ben Carroll as her deputy.[3] Allan became the second female premier in the state's history, following Joan Kirner's 1990–1992 premiership.[4] The government is seeking a fourth consecutive four-year term.

Following the Liberal/National Coalition's defeat, Opposition Leader and Liberal leader Matthew Guy announced in his post-election concession speech he would resign the leadership of the party. This ensured a leadership election was held for the position, at which newly elected member for Hawthorn John Pesutto defeated Brad Battin by one vote in a secret ballot of Liberal party-room MPs.[5]

Since the 2022 state election, and the January 2023 supplementary election in Narracan, there have been four by-elections: the August 2023 Warrandyte by-election, the November 2023 Mulgrave by-election, and the February 2025 Werribee and Prahran by-elections. In the first three cases, the incumbent's party successfully retained the seat; in Prahran, the incumbent Greens were defeated by the Liberal candidate.

Aside from this, the Assembly's composition has been altered by the removal of Will Fowles and Darren Cheeseman from the Labor caucus in October 2023 and April 2024 respectively, with both now sitting on the crossbench as "Independent Labor" MPs. The resignation of Sam Hibbins from the Greens on 1 November 2024 also resulted in his sitting on the crossbench as an Independent MP until resigning from Parliament on 23 November, resulting in the Prahran by-election.[6]

On 27 December 2024, a leadership spill resulted in Brad Battin replacing John Pesutto as Liberal leader and leader of the opposition.[7] Pesutto's leadership came under intense pressure after a federal court judgement finding he defamed Liberal parliamentarian Moira Deeming and was ordered to pay $300,000 in damages.[8] Battin's leadership lasted 11 months, as he was defeated in another leadership spill on 18 November 2025 by Kew MP Jess Wilson.[9] Media reporting quoted several Liberal MPs on backgroud complaining about Battin's alleged lack of focus on issues other than Victoria's crime rates.[10]

Electoral system

Eligible Victorian electors are required to cast a ballot due to compulsory voting laws. The eligibility criteria for enrolment to vote includes being 18 years or older, an Australian citizen, and to have lived in Victoria for longer than a month.[2]

Legislative Assembly

For the election of members to single seats of the Legislative Assembly, the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) uses full preferential voting where for a vote to count, it is required to number every box on the ballot in the order of the most preferred candidate for the particular electoral district an elector is registered to vote in.[11] The election will cover all 88 Seats of the Victorian Legislative Assembly.[12]

Legislative Council

For the election of members to multi-member state regions in the Legislative Council the VEC uses optional preferential voting where voters can either vote for a political party or a group voting ticket 'above the line' or vote for individual candidates 'below the line'.[11] Members of the Legislative Council represent state regions. There are currently eight state regions, they make up of eleven Legislative Assembly districts and are each represented by five members of Parliament in the Legislative Council.[13]

When voting 'above the line', for a vote to count, voters are required to write the number 1 for the political party or group of candidates they prefer. Preferences are then automatically distributed based on the registered preference order provided to the VEC by the group voting ticket.[11] When voting 'below the line', for a vote to count, voters are required to number a minimum of five boxes on the ballot in the order of their most preferred candidate.[11]

Victoria's upper house is the last remaining legislative chamber to utilise party-submitted group voting tickets to automatically distribute voter's above-the-line preferences.[14] Throughout 2025 the parliament's electoral matters committee oversaw an inquiry into reforming the electoral voting method for the Legislative Council.[15] Any reform would require the approval of both houses of parliament, whilst an alteration to the structure of the upper house, such as the amount of members elected to the chamber or the eight regions from which they are elected, would require a vote at a state-wide referendum.[14][16]

The committee handed down its report in December 2025, recommending that group voting tickets be abolished and the "weighted inclusive Gregory method for surplus vote transfers" be adopted prior to the 2026 election.[17] The committee further recommended a new process be established, involving either an expert panel, a citizens assembly or a constitutional convention, to consider changes to the electoral structure of the council which could be considered by voters at a referendum in 2028 or 2030.[17]

Registered parties

See also: List of political parties in Australia § Victoria

Parties registered with the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC).[18]

Additionally, the Frontline Workers Party,[19] the Fusion Party,[20] Ian Cook's Fair Go Party,[21] Socialist Alliance[22], the Victorians Party (unrelated to a party of the same name formed in 2022),[23] the White Australia Party and The West Party are seeking registration.[24]

Candidates and retiring MPs

Main article: Candidates of the 2026 Victorian state election

The following members announced that they will not be contesting the 2026 election:

Labor

Liberal

National

Campaign

On 13 September 2025, the first day of the Victorian Liberal state conference, Battin announced that if elected his government would, by Christmas 2026, grant police the power to stop and search individuals in public places using a handheld metal detector without warrants or designations.[35][36][37]

The Liberal/National opposition has vowed to repeal the statewide treaty law within 100 days of government if it wins the 2026 Victorian state election.[38]

Date

In accordance to the timetable set out in the Electoral Act 2002 (VIC), the terms of elected officials to Victorian Parliament are on a fixed term basis. All elections since the 2006 have occurred every four years on the last Saturday of November. Unless the Governor of Victoria unexpectedly dissolves parliament, the election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026.[39]

Expected timeline of the election

  • 3 November 2026: The Legislative Assembly expires prompting the need for an election to be held. This also means that there are no longer any members, business of parliament ends until a new parliament is formed, and parliament enters into a caretaker period.[40]
  • 3 November 2026: On the same day that the Legislative Assembly expires, the Governor of Victoria issues a writ for the VEC to hold an election.[39]
  • 10 November 2026: 7 days after the writ is issued, at 8:00 pm, the electoral roll is closed meaning people can no longer be added to the electoral roll, update the electorate they live in, or update any other information.[39]
  • 13 November 2026: 10 days after the writ is issued, at noon, the period for submitting candidate nominations closes.[39]
  • 28 November 2026: The last Saturday of November, nearest to the fourth year following of the previous election date, is the Election Day.[39]
  • 19 December 2026: Within 21 days following election day, the Electoral Commissioner returns the writ with information regarding the successful candidates.[39]

Pre-electoral pendulum

Labor seats (54)[a]
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Northcote Kat Theophanous ALP 0.2% v GRN
Bass Jordan Crugnale ALP 0.2%
Pakenham Emma Vulin ALP 0.4%
Hastings Paul Mercurio ALP 1.4%
Pascoe Vale Anthony Cianflone ALP 2.0% v GRN
Preston Nathan Lambert ALP 2.1% v GRN
Ripon Martha Haylett ALP 3.0%
Glen Waverley John Mullahy ALP 3.3%
Bayswater Jackson Taylor ALP 4.2%
Footscray Katie Hall ALP 4.2% v GRN
Yan Yean Lauren Kathage ALP 4.3%
Melton Steve McGhie ALP 4.6%
Fairly safe
Ashwood Matt Fregon ALP 6.2%
Sunbury Josh Bull ALP 6.4%
Niddrie Ben Carroll ALP 6.7%
Greenvale Iwan Walters ALP 7.1%
Eureka Michaela Settle ALP 7.2%
Box Hill Paul Hamer ALP 7.2%
Ringwood Will Fowles (IND) ALP 7.5%
Monbulk Daniela De Martino ALP 7.6%
Bentleigh Nick Staikos ALP 8.0%
Mordialloc Tim Richardson ALP 8.2%
Narre Warren South Gary Maas ALP 8.3%
Point Cook Mathew Hilakari ALP 8.3%
Bellarine Alison Marchant ALP 8.5%
Frankston Paul Edbrooke ALP 8.7%
Narre Warren North Belinda Wilson ALP 8.7%
Sydenham Natalie Hutchins ALP 8.8%
Cranbourne Pauline Richards ALP 9.0%
Eltham Vicki Ward ALP 9.0%
Macedon Mary-Anne Thomas ALP 9.5%
St Albans Natalie Suleyman ALP 9.6%
Carrum Sonya Kilkenny ALP 9.8%
South Barwon Darren Cheeseman[d] ALP 9.8%
Safe
Clarinda Meng Heang Tak ALP 10.2%
Bendigo East Jacinta Allan ALP 10.8%
Mulgrave Eden Foster[e] ALP 10.8% v IND[f]
Werribee John Lister[g] ALP 10.9%[h]
Albert Park Nina Taylor ALP 11.2%
Mill Park Lily D'Ambrosio ALP 11.6%
Wendouree Juliana Addison ALP 11.9%
Tarneit Dylan Wight ALP 12.3%
Essendon Danny Pearson ALP 12.5%
Bundoora Colin Brooks ALP 12.7%
Ivanhoe Anthony Carbines ALP 13.0%
Williamstown Melissa Horne ALP 13.4%
Oakleigh Steve Dimopoulos ALP 13.5%
Kororoit Luba Grigorovitch ALP 14.5%
Bendigo West Maree Edwards ALP 14.6%
Geelong Christine Couzens ALP 14.7%
Broadmeadows Kathleen Matthews-Ward ALP 15.5%
Thomastown Bronwyn Halfpenny ALP 15.8%
Lara Ella George ALP 15.9%
Kalkallo Ros Spence ALP 16.5%
Dandenong Gabrielle Williams ALP 18.3%
Laverton Sarah Connolly ALP 18.4%
Liberal/National seats (29)[c]
Seat Member Party Margin
Marginal
Mornington Chris Crewther LIB 0.7% v IND
Benambra Bill Tilley LIB 0.9% v IND
Mildura Jade Benham NAT 1.2% v IND
Croydon David Hodgett LIB 1.4%
Hawthorn John Pesutto LIB 1.7%
Polwarth Richard Riordan LIB 1.8%
Caulfield David Southwick LIB 2.1%
Rowville Kim Wells LIB 3.7%
Kew Jess Wilson LIB 4.0%
Warrandyte Nicole Werner[i] LIB 4.3%[j]
Morwell Martin Cameron NAT 4.4%
Berwick Brad Battin LIB 4.7%
Sandringham Brad Rowswell LIB 5.0%
Brighton James Newbury LIB 5.1%
Evelyn Bridget Vallence LIB 5.4%
Bulleen Matthew Guy LIB 5.9%
Fairly safe
Nepean Sam Groth LIB 6.4%
Shepparton Kim O'Keeffe NAT 6.8% v IND
Eildon Cindy McLeish LIB 7.0%
South-West Coast Roma Britnell LIB 8.0%
Malvern Michael O'Brien LIB 8.1%
Euroa Annabelle Cleeland NAT 9.9%
Safe
Narracan[k] Wayne Farnham LIB 13.0% v IND
Gippsland South Danny O'Brien NAT 15.6%
Ovens Valley Tim McCurdy NAT 17.8%
Very safe
Lowan Emma Kealy NAT 21.6%
Murray Plains Peter Walsh NAT 23.4%
Gippsland East Tim Bull NAT 24.6%
Crossbench seats (5)
Seat Member Party Margin
Richmond Gabrielle de Vietri GRN 7.3% v ALP
Melbourne Ellen Sandell GRN 10.2% v ALP
Prahran Rachel Westaway[l] LIB 12.0% v LIB[m]
Brunswick Tim Read GRN 13.7% v ALP

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2026 Victorian state election

Primary vote

Two-party preferred

Notes

  1. ^ a b Will Fowles and Darren Cheeseman have sat on the crossbench as Independent Labor MPs since 5 August 2023 and 29 April 2024 respectively.
  2. ^ The election for the District of Narracan was deferred. A supplementary election was held on 28 January 2023.
  3. ^ a b c The Greens lost the seat of Prahran to the Liberal Party at a by-election on 8 February 2025.[1]
  4. ^ In April 2024, Cheeseman was suspended from the Labor Party caucus. He still remains a rank-and-file member of the party.[41]
  5. ^ Elected at the 2023 Mulgrave state by-election following the resignation of Daniel Andrews.
  6. ^ The two-candidate-preferred result of the 2023 by-election was ALP 6.5% vs IND.
  7. ^ Lister succeeded Pallas following the 2025 Werribee state by-election.
  8. ^ While Lister retained Werribee for Labor on a margin of 0.8% at the 2025 by-election, he will go into the state election based upon the margin that the party had won at the 2022 election.
  9. ^ Werner succeeded Smith following the 2023 Warrandyte state by-election.
  10. ^ The two-candidate-preferred result of the 2023 by-election was LIB 21.0% vs GRN. However Labor did not contest the by-election, therefore the LIB vs GRN margin won't be the two-candidate-preferred margin for Warrandyte at the next state election, and therefore should not be used in the pendulum. The LIB vs ALP margin for Warrandyte at the 2022 state election is used instead.
  11. ^ Due to the sudden death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist, the election in Narracan was deferred, and a supplementary election was instead held on 28 January 2023.
  12. ^ Elected following the 2025 Prahran state by-election.
  13. ^ The two-candidate-preferred result of the 2025 by-election was LIB 1.4% vs GRN.

References

  1. ^ "State opposition gains Prahran seat from Greens in tight by-election race". ABC News. 8 February 2025. Archived from the original on 8 February 2025. Retrieved 8 February 2025.
  2. ^ a b "State elections". Victorian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 12 August 2023. Retrieved 4 November 2022.
  3. ^ "Jacinta Allan fends off late challenge to become 49th premier of Victoria". ABC News. 27 September 2023. Archived from the original on 27 September 2023. Retrieved 27 September 2023.
  4. ^ Kolovos, Benita; Ore, Adeshola (27 September 2023). "Jacina Allan to become premier of Victoria". The Guardian. Archived from the original on 27 September 2023. Retrieved 27 September 2023.
  5. ^ McCubbing, Gus (8 December 2022). "John Pesutto wins Liberal leadership in Victoria by one vote". Australian Financial Review. Retrieved 8 December 2022.
  6. ^ Andy Yu (23 November 2024). "Prahran MP Sam Hibbins announces he is quitting parliament". ABC News.
  7. ^ "Victorian Liberals elect Brad Battin as new leader". ABC News. 26 December 2024. Retrieved 27 December 2024.
  8. ^ Benita Kolovos (12 December 2024). "John Pesutto defies calls to resign after being ordered to pay $300,000 for defaming Moira Deeming". The Guardian.
  9. ^ "Jess Wilson becomes first woman to lead Victorian Liberals". ABC News. 17 November 2025. Retrieved 17 November 2025.
  10. ^ Callum Godde (18 November 2025). "'New direction' as Liberals crown first woman leader". AAP. Yahoo News.
  11. ^ a b c d "Preferential voting". Victorian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 7 November 2022. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
  12. ^ "State districts". Victorian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 7 November 2022. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
  13. ^ "State regions". Victorian Electoral Commission. Archived from the original on 7 November 2022. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
  14. ^ a b Benita Kolovos (29 October 2024). "Elections for Victoria's upper house could be overhauled under proposals to stamp out 'preference whispering'". The Guardian.
  15. ^ Josh Nicholas, Benita Kolovos, Andy Ball, Nick Evershed and Ben Raue (2 December 2025). "Voting in Victoria is broken. Here's how it could be fixed and who would benefit". The Guardian.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  16. ^ "Inquiry into Victoria's Upper House electoral system". parliament.vic.gov.au.
  17. ^ a b "Inquiry into Victoria's Upper House electoral system" (PDF). Electoral Matters Committee. parliament.vic.gov.au. 2 December 2025.
  18. ^ "Currently registered parties - Victorian Electoral Commission". www.vec.vic.gov.au. Archived from the original on 31 October 2022. Retrieved 31 October 2022.
  19. ^ Deery, Shannon (21 September 2025). "Backroom Baz: Grimley wants to step back in the ring for teveryday heroes". Herald Sun. Archived from the original on 21 September 2025. Retrieved 15 November 2025.
  20. ^ Whiticker, Miles (15 June 2025). "Fusion Party Melbourne Social". Fusion Party. Archived from the original on 15 November 2025. Retrieved 15 November 2025.
  21. ^ "Party leader Ian Cook guest at VFF meeting". The Weekly Advertiser. 27 August 2025. Archived from the original on 15 November 2025. Retrieved 15 November 2025.
  22. ^ "Socialist Alliance is a federally registered party that is planning to run candidates in the upcoming Victorian State Elections in November 2026". Facebook. Socialist Alliance Melbourne. 15 November 2025. Archived from the original on 15 November 2025. Retrieved 15 November 2025.
  23. ^ "We are the Victorians". Victorians Party. Archived from the original on 27 November 2025. Retrieved 27 November 2025.
  24. ^ Lucas, Cade (2 December 2024). "New party to challenge Labor". Star Weekly. Archived from the original on 4 December 2024. Retrieved 4 December 2024.
  25. ^ a b Eddie, Rachel (23 September 2025). "Retiring MPs leave Labor exposed in two marginal seats". The Age. Retrieved 30 September 2025.
  26. ^ Everitt, Corey (1 October 2025). "Vulin will not re-contest Pakenham seat in 2026, MP announces". Pakenhan Officer Star News. Retrieved 18 November 2025.
  27. ^ Watson, Catherine (2 October 2025). "Crugnale to step down". Bass Coast Post. Retrieved 18 November 2025.
  28. ^ "Sydenham MP to step down". Melton & Moorabool Star Weekly. 17 October 2025. Retrieved 18 November 2025.
  29. ^ "Statement from Shaune Leane MLC". x. 1 December 2025. Retrieved 1 December 2025.
  30. ^ Deery, Shannon (13 March 2024). "Bill Tilley announces this will be his last term in office". Herald Sun. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
  31. ^ Douglas, Carly (6 August 2025). "Senior Victorian Liberal David Hodgett won't seek preselection in state election". Herald Sun. Retrieved 9 August 2025.
  32. ^ Eddie, Rachel (9 September 2025). "Former Liberal leader Michael O'Brien to quit parliament". The Age. Retrieved 9 September 2025.
  33. ^ "Wells joins O'Brien, Hodgett in Liberals exodus". Herald Sun. 14 September 2025. Retrieved 18 November 2025.
  34. ^ Willingham, Richard (26 November 2024). "Victorian Nationals leader Peter Walsh stands down, Danny O'Brien elected as new party leader". ABC News. Retrieved 26 November 2024.
  35. ^ Yu, Andi (12 September 2025). "Victorian opposition leader Brad Battin pledges action on knife crime by legislating 'Jack's Law'". ABC News. Archived from the original on 13 September 2025. Retrieved 13 September 2025.
  36. ^ Kolovos, Benita (13 September 2025). "Victorian Liberals must unite or face 'crisis', president warns as moderates swat away challenge for power". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Archived from the original on 13 September 2025. Retrieved 13 September 2025. Battin, meanwhile, used his speech to announce a $100m plan to tackle crime, which included a pledge to introduce Jack's law – a Queensland law that permits police to randomly detain any person to search them with a metal detecting wand – in the state if elected next year.
  37. ^ Galloway, Anthony (13 September 2025). "Victorian Liberal president survives challenge, warns of 'crisis' facing the party". The Australian. Archived from the original on 13 September 2025. Retrieved 13 September 2025. In a speech to the state council, Victorian Opposition Leader Brad Battin pledged to give police sweeping new powers to tackle the state's crime crisis, unveiling a $100m law and order package that would equip officers with hand-held metal detectors.
  38. ^ "Victorian Coalition vows to scrap Australia's first statewide treaty with First Peoples if it wins government". 14 October 2025. Retrieved 14 October 2025.
  39. ^ a b c d e f "Fact Sheet G3: Elections". Parliament of Victoria. 10 March 2015. Archived from the original on 17 June 2016. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
  40. ^ "Fact Sheet A2: Terminology used in Parliament". Parliament of Victoria. 24 March 2015. Archived from the original on 7 November 2022. Retrieved 7 November 2022.
  41. ^ Kolovos, Benita (30 April 2024). "Jacinta Allan dumps Victorian Labor MP from caucus after fresh allegations emerge". The Guardian. Retrieved 2 May 2024.
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