2015 Extremaduran regional election

2015 Extremaduran regional election
24 May 2015
All 65 seats in the Assembly of Extremadura
33 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered911,433 0.5%
Turnout650,774 (71.4%)
3.3 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Guillermo Fernández Vara José Antonio Monago Álvaro Jaén
Party PSOE–SIEx PP Podemos
Leader since 20 September 2006 8 November 2008 14 February 2015
Leader's seat Badajoz Badajoz Cáceres
Last election 30 seats, 43.4% 32 seats, 46.1% Did not contest
Seats won 30 28 6
Seat change 0 4 6
Popular vote 265,015 236,266 51,216
Percentage 41.5% 37.0% 8.0%
Swing 1.9 pp 9.1 pp New party
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Victoria Domínguez Pedro Escobar
Party C's IU
Leader since 5 April 2015 30 September 2007
Leader's seat Cáceres Badajoz (lost)
Last election 0 seats, 0.3%[a] 3 seats, 5.7%
Seats won 1 0
Seat change 1 3
Popular vote 28,010 27,122
Percentage 4.4% 4.2%
Swing 4.1 pp 1.5 pp
Constituency results map for the Assembly of Extremadura
President before election

José Antonio Monago
PP

Elected President

Guillermo Fernández Vara
PSOE

A regional election was held in Extremadura on Sunday, 24 May 2015, to elect the 9th Assembly of the autonomous community. All 65 seats in the Assembly were up for election. It was held concurrently with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all across Spain.

Overview

Under the 2011 Statute of Autonomy, the Assembly of Extremadura was the unicameral legislature of the homonymous autonomous community, having legislative power in devolved matters, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1]

Electoral system

Voting for the Assembly was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Extremadura and in full enjoyment of their political rights, provided that they were not sentenced—by a final court ruling—to deprivation of the right to vote, nor being legally incapacitated.[2][3][4] Additionally, Spaniards abroad were required to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[5][6]

The Assembly of Extremadura was entitled to a maximum of 65 seats, with the electoral law setting its size at that number. All members were elected in two multi-member constituencies—corresponding to the provinces of Badajoz and Cáceres, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 25 being distributed in proportion to their populations—using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional voting system, with an electoral threshold of five percent of valid votes (which included blank ballots) being applied in each constituency. Alternatively, parties failing to reach the threshold in one of the constituencies were also entitled to enter the seat distribution as long as they ran candidates in both districts and reached five percent regionally.[2][7]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Assembly constituency was entitled the following seats:[8]

Seats Constituencies
36 Badajoz
29 Cáceres

The law did not provide for by-elections to fill vacated seats; instead, any vacancies that occurred after the proclamation of candidates and into the legislative term were to be covered by the successive candidates in the list and, when required, by the designated substitutes.[9][10]

Election date

The term of the Assembly of Extremadura expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the scheduled date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of Extremadura (DOE), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication.[1][11][12] The previous election was held on 22 May 2011, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 22 May 2015. The election decree was required to be published in the DOE no later than 28 April 2015, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible date for election day on Sunday, 21 June 2015.

The regional president had the prerogative to dissolve the Assembly of Extremadura and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process and that dissolution did not occur before one year had elapsed since the previous one.[11][13] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Assembly was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[14]

The election to the Assembly of Extremadura was officially called on 31 March 2015 with the publication of the corresponding decree in the DOE, setting election day for 24 May.[8]

Outgoing parliament

The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the chamber at the time of the election call.[15][16]

Parliamentary composition in March 2015
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
People's–United Extremadura Parliamentary Group PP 31 32
EU 1
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSOE 28 28
United Left–Greens Parliamentary Group IU 3 3
Mixed Parliamentary Group PREx–CREx 2 2

Parties and candidates

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, alliances and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form an alliance ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant electoral commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least two percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[17][18] Additionally, a balanced composition of men and women was required in the electoral lists, so that candidates of either sex made up at least 40 percent of the total composition.[19]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Vote % Seats
PP
List
 José Antonio Monago Conservatism
Christian democracy 		46.1% 32 [20]
[21]
[22]
PSOE–SIEx
List
 Guillermo Fernández Vara Social democracy 43.4% 30 [23]
[24]
[25]
Ganemos–
IU–LV
List
 Pedro Escobar Socialism
Communism 		5.7% 3 [26]
[27]
[28]
UPyD
List
 José Francisco Sigüenza Social liberalism
Radical centrism 		1.1% 0 [29]
C's
List
 Victoria Domínguez Liberalism
0.3%
[a] 		0 [30]
[31]
eX
List
  • Extremadurans (eX)
    – Extremaduran Regionalist Party (PREx)
    – Regionalist Convergence of Extremadura (CREx)
Estanislao Martín Regionalism
Social democracy 		Contested
in alliance[b] 		[32]
[33]
EU
List
 José María Gijón Regionalism
Conservatism 		Contested
in alliance[c] 		[34]
[35]
Podemos
List
 Álvaro Jaén Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		Did not contest [36]

United Extremadura (EU) broke its electoral alliance with the People's Party (PP) in July 2014, arguing that it had received an offer from the PP that "undervalued them as a party" by not offering them the removal of the 5% electoral threshold, "nor relevant positions".[34][37]

Campaign

Election debates

2015 Extremaduran regional election debates
Date Organisers Moderator(s)     P  Present[d]    S  Surrogate[e]    NI  Not invited   I  Invited    A  Absent invitee 
PP PSOE G–IU–LV eX EU UPyD C's Podemos Vox AEx PACMA BA Audience Ref.
18 May Canal Extremadura Víctor Molino P
Monago 		P
Vara 		P
Escobar 		P
Martín 		P
Gijón 		P
Sigüenza 		P
Domínguez 		P
Jaén 		P
Hernández 		P
Ibarlucea 		P
Rodríguez 		P
Manzano 		— [38]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 33 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Assembly of Extremadura.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Regional Government of Extremadura.

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 24 May 2015 Assembly of Extremadura election results →
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party–Independent Socialists (PSOE–SIEx) 265,015 41.50 −1.95 30 ±0
People's Party (PP) 236,266 37.00 −9.13 28 −4
We Can (Podemos) 51,216 8.02 New 6 +6
Citizens–Party of the Citizenry (C's)1 28,010 4.39 +4.06 1 +1
Let's Win Extremadura–United Left–The Greens (Ganemos–IU–LV) 27,122 4.25 −1.47 0 −3
Extremadurans (eXtremeños)2 9,305 1.46 +1.30 0 ±0
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 3,947 0.62 −0.44 0 ±0
United Extremadura (EU) 3,127 0.49 New 0 ±0
Vox (Vox) 1,786 0.28 New 0 ±0
Forward Extremadura (AEx)3 1,538 0.24 ±0.00 0 ±0
Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 1,502 0.24 New 0 ±0
Forward Badajoz (BA) 1,245 0.19 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 8,561 1.34 −0.07
Total 638,640 65 ±0
Valid votes 638,640 98.14 −0.51
Invalid votes 12,134 1.86 +0.51
Votes cast / turnout 650,774 71.40 −3.25
Abstentions 260,659 28.60 +3.25
Registered voters 911,433
Sources[15][39][40]
Footnotes:
Popular vote
PSOE–SIEx
 
 41.50%
PP
 
 37.00%
Podemos
 
 8.02%
C's
 
 4.39%
Ganemos–IU–LV
 
 4.25%
eX
 
 1.46%
Others
 
 2.06%
Blank ballots
 
 1.34%
Seats
PSOE–SIEx
 
 46.15%
PP
 
 43.08%
Podemos
 
 9.23%
C's
 
 1.54%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PSOE PP Podemos C's
% S % S % S % S
Badajoz 43.7 18 36.3 15 7.3 3 3.9 −
Cáceres 38.0 12 38.2 13 9.2 3 5.1 1
Total 41.5 30 37.0 28 8.0 6 4.4 1
Sources[15][39][40]

Aftermath

Government formation

Investiture
Nomination of Guillermo Fernández Vara (PSOE)
Ballot → 1 July 2015
Required majority → 33 out of 65 Y
Yes
36 / 65
No
0 / 65
Abstentions
  • • PP (28)
  • • C's (1)
29 / 65
Absentees
0 / 65
Sources[15][41]

Notes

  1. ^ a b Results for UPEx in the 2011 election.
  2. ^ PREx–CREx (2 seats) contested the 2011 election in alliance with the PSOE.
  3. ^ EU (1 seat) contested the 2011 election in alliance with the PP.
  4. ^ Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
  5. ^ Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
  6. ^ a b c d Within PSOE.
  7. ^ Responses denoting a party's generic candidate are aggregated to that party's main candidate/leader at the time of the poll.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Encuestas y resultados - elecciones autonómicas y municipales del 24 de mayo de 2015". GAD3 (in Spanish). 28 May 2015.
  2. ^ "El PP mantendría sin apoyos Castilla y León, Castilla-La Mancha, Murcia y La Rioja". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  3. ^ "Extremadura: PP y PSOE pugnan por el poder con la amenaza del ascenso de Podemos". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  4. ^ "Extremadura. Encuesta mayo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 17 May 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 18 May 2015.
  5. ^ "Monago obtendría 30 diputados y Vara 21, según una encuesta del PP". El Periódico de Extremadura (in Spanish). 13 May 2015.
  6. ^ "El PP mantiene la mayoría y el PSOE pierde casi 13 puntos en Extremadura". El Periódico de Extremadura (in Spanish). 3 May 2015.
  7. ^ "Los populares ganan en el ámbito urbano y ahora también en el rural". El Periódico de Extremadura (in Spanish). 3 May 2015.
  8. ^ a b "Monago amplía su ventaja sobre el PSOE en Extremadura, pero decidirán los pactos". ABC (in Spanish). 3 May 2015.
  9. ^ "Rajoy cree un éxito ser el más votado aunque pierda plazas simbólicas". ABC (in Spanish). 17 May 2015.
  10. ^ "La segunda vuelta de Monago y Vara". ABC (in Spanish). 21 May 2015.
  11. ^ "Ciudadanos y Podemos erosionan el bipartidismo en Extremadura". El País (in Spanish). 25 April 2015.
  12. ^ "Situación política en Extremadura". El País (in Spanish). 24 April 2015.
  13. ^ a b c d e "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas 2015. Comunidad Autónoma de Extremadura (Estudio nº 3073. Marzo-Abril 2015)". CIS (in Spanish). 7 May 2015.
  14. ^ "Sánchez se lanza al ataque como "única alternativa a la derecha"". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
  15. ^ "PSOE o PP estarían obligados a pactar para gobernar Extremadura". Extremadura 7 Días (in Spanish). 8 May 2015.
  16. ^ "El PSOE vencerá en Extremadura con tres escaños más que el PP, Podemos entra con siete y Ciudadanos con tres". El Plural (in Spanish). 9 April 2015.
  17. ^ "El PP seguirá siendo el más votado en las CC AA pese a la caída en apoyos". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  18. ^ "Extremadura: Monago y Fernández Vara, pugna reñida por ser la fuerza más votada". La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015.
  19. ^ "Extremadura. Encuesta marzo 2015" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 20 April 2015. Archived from the original (PDF) on 27 April 2015.
  20. ^ "Estudio de Opinión ante las Elecciones Autonómicas en Extremadura". Canal Extremadura (in Spanish). 9 March 2015. Archived from the original on 2 April 2015.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  21. ^ "EXTREMADURA, Febrero 2015. Sondeo SigmaDos". Electográfica (in Spanish). 9 March 2015.
  22. ^ "Encuesta sobre las elecciones autonómicas en Extremadura - Febrero 2015". Extremadura 7 Días (in Spanish). 26 February 2015. Archived from the original on 26 February 2015.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  23. ^ "EXTREMADURA, Febrero 2015. Sondeo Vaubán". Electográfica (in Spanish). 25 February 2015.
  24. ^ "EXTREMADURA, Enero 2015. Sondeo interno PP". Electográfica (in Spanish). 31 January 2015.
  25. ^ "El PP, a solo dos escaños de la mayoría absoluta". Hoy (in Spanish). 18 January 2015. Archived from the original on 20 January 2015.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  26. ^ "EXTREMADURA, Enero 2015. Sondeo Sigma Dos". Electográfica (in Spanish). 17 January 2015.
  27. ^ "El reparto del poder territorial en España en 2015" (PDF). desarrollando-ideas.com (in Spanish). 31 October 2014.
  28. ^ "Encuesta Electoral, intención de voto actual de los extremeños". Extremadura 7 Días (in Spanish). 21 October 2014. Archived from the original on 7 December 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  29. ^ "EXTREMADURA, Octubre 2014. Vaubán". Electográfica (in Spanish). 21 October 2014.
  30. ^ "El PP, a solo dos escaños de la mayoría absoluta". Hoy (in Spanish). 25 October 2014.
  31. ^ "EXTREMADURA, Octubre 2014. Sigma Dos / Hoy". Electográfica (in Spanish). 25 October 2014.
  32. ^ "Proyección del resultado de las europeas en los parlamentos autonómicos". El País (in Spanish). 31 May 2014.
  33. ^ "IU dobla los escaños y refuerza su papel clave en la política extremeña". Hoy (in Spanish). 2 February 2014.
  34. ^ "El paro y la falta de industria, problemas más importantes para los extremeños". Hoy (in Spanish). 31 January 2014.
  35. ^ "El PP ganaría de nuevo en 9 de 13 autonomías". La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
  36. ^ "Encuesta autonómicas NC Report noviembre 2013" (PDF). La Razón (in Spanish). 18 November 2013. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 3 July 2014.
  37. ^ "Las cosas de Paco Marhuenda: Extremadura: Monago necesitaría otra vez el apoyo de IU". Extremadura Progresista (in Spanish). 18 November 2013.
  38. ^ "El PP mantiene el poder autonómico". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  39. ^ "Necesitaría pactos para gobernar en Navarra, Asturias, Canarias, Extremadura y Aragón". La Razón (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
  40. ^ "El PP ganaría en la mayoría de las autonomías (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 13 May 2013. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016.
  41. ^ "El PP volvería a ganar las elecciones en Extremadura". Hoy (in Spanish). 12 May 2013.
  42. ^ "El 45,1% de los extremeños votaría al PP en las autonómicas, frente al 39,1% que apoyaría el PSOE". El Imparcial (in Spanish). 13 May 2013.
Other
  1. ^ a b Statute (2011), art. 16.
  2. ^ a b Statute (2011), art. 17.
  3. ^ LEEx (1987), art. 2.
  4. ^ LOREG (1985), arts. 2–3.
  5. ^ LOREG (1985), art. 75.
  6. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Archived from the original on 31 August 2021. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  7. ^ LEEx (1987), arts. 17–19.
  8. ^ a b Decreto del Presidente 5/2015, de 30 de marzo, por el que se convocan elecciones a la Asamblea de Extremadura (PDF) (Decree 5/2015). Official Journal of Extremadura (in Spanish). 30 March 2015. Retrieved 18 October 2025.
  9. ^ LEEx (1987), arts. 19 & 26.
  10. ^ LOREG (1985), arts. 46 & 48.
  11. ^ a b LEEx (1987), arts. 22–23.
  12. ^ LOREG (1985), art. 42.
  13. ^ Statute (2011), art. 26–27.
  14. ^ Statute (2011), art. 25.
  15. ^ a b c d Lozano, Carles. "Elecciones a la Asamblea de Extremadura (desde 1983)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 October 2025.
  16. ^ "Grupos Parlamentarios VIII Legislatura". Assembly of Extremadura (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 October 2025.
  17. ^ LEEx (1987), arts. 25–26.
  18. ^ LOREG (1985), art. 44.
  19. ^ LOREG (1985), art. 44 bis.
  20. ^ "Monago, reelegido presidente del PP extremeño sin ningún voto en contra". El Periódico Extremadura (in Spanish). Europa Press. 5 May 2012. Retrieved 13 November 2025.
  21. ^ "La Junta Directiva Regional del PP aprueba que Monago sea el candidato a la presidencia del Gobierno de Extremadura". 20 minutos (in Spanish). Badajoz. Europa Press. 4 February 2015. Retrieved 18 October 2025.
  22. ^ "El PP confirma como candidatos a Moreno en Andalucía y a Monago en Extremadura" (in Spanish). RTVE. Servimedia. 6 February 2015. Retrieved 13 November 2025.
  23. ^ "Fernández Vara, reelegido secretario general del PSOE extremeño, con el 95,73% de votos" (in Spanish). RTVE. EFE. 14 April 2012. Retrieved 13 November 2025.
  24. ^ "Fernández Vara, candidato del PSOE a la Junta de Extremadura sin pasar por primarias". ABC (in Spanish). EFE. 3 October 2014. Retrieved 18 October 2025.
  25. ^ "PSOE y Siex irán en coalición a las elecciones autonómicas". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 10 February 2015. Retrieved 18 October 2025.
  26. ^ "Pedro Escobar, reelegido coordinador de IU en Extremadura con el 71,48% de los votos" (in Spanish). RTVE. Agencias. 2 December 2012. Retrieved 13 November 2025.
  27. ^ "Pedro Escobar gana las primarias de IU con el 84% de los votos". Expansión (in Spanish). Mérida. 23 February 2015. Retrieved 18 October 2025.
  28. ^ "IU Extremadura usará la marca Ganemos en las elecciones autonómicas y municipales de la región". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 15 April 2015. Retrieved 18 October 2025.
  29. ^ "José Francisco Sigüenza será el candidato de UPyD en Extremadura tras imponerse en las primarias" (in Spanish). Mérida: Europa Press. 1 November 2014. Retrieved 18 October 2025.
  30. ^ "UPEx irá a las municipales dentro de Ciudadanos". El Periódico Extremadura (in Spanish). 14 November 2014. Retrieved 18 October 2025.
  31. ^ "María Victoria Domínguez, candidata de Ciudadanos en Extremadura". Expansión (in Spanish). 6 April 2015. Retrieved 18 October 2025.
  32. ^ "La formación regionalista Prex-Crex rompe sus lazos con el PSOE tras 10 años de coalición". Expansión (in Spanish). Cáceres. Europa Press. 30 August 2013. Retrieved 21 October 2025.
  33. ^ "Estanislao Martín, candidato de la coalición regionalista 'Extremeños'". Expansión (in Spanish). Mérida. 23 February 2015. Retrieved 21 October 2025.
  34. ^ a b J. Vinagre, Celestino (23 July 2014). "Extremadura Unida rompe la coalición electoral con el PP para 2015". Hoy (in Spanish). Retrieved 18 October 2025.
  35. ^ "José María Gijón será el candidato de EU para la Junta". El Periódico Extremadura (in Spanish). Europa Press. 24 March 2015. Retrieved 21 October 2025.
  36. ^ "Álvaro Jaén se convierte en el primer secretario regional de Podemos, con el 53% de los votos". eldiario.es (in Spanish). 14 February 2015. Retrieved 18 October 2025.
  37. ^ "EU respetará el pacto con el PP esta legislatura". El Periódico Extremadura (in Spanish). EFE. 4 September 2014. Retrieved 18 October 2025.
  38. ^ Cid de Rivera, Antonio (19 May 2015). "Un debate que tuvo poco de debate". El Periódico Extremadura (in Spanish). Retrieved 21 October 2025.
  39. ^ a b "Resolución de 3 de junio de 2015, de la Junta Electoral de Extremadura, por la que se hacen públicos los resultados del escrutinio general y proclamación de diputados electos a la Asamblea de Extremadura, efectuada por la Junta Electoral Provincial de Cáceres, resultante de las elecciones a la Asamblea de Extremadura celebradas el día 24 de mayo de 2015" (PDF). Official Journal of Extremadura (in Spanish) (108): 22430–22432. 8 June 2015. ISSN 2483-5188. Retrieved 19 October 2025.
  40. ^ a b "Resolución de 8 de junio de 2015, de la Junta Electoral de Extremadura, por la que se hacen públicos los resultados del escrutinio general y proclamación de diputados electos a la Asamblea de Extremadura, efectuada por la Junta Electoral Provincial de Badajoz, resultante de las elecciones a la Asamblea de Extremadura celebradas el día 24 de mayo de 2015" (PDF). Official Journal of Extremadura (in Spanish) (110): 22658–22660. 10 June 2015. ISSN 2483-5188. Retrieved 19 October 2025.
  41. ^ "El PSOE recupera el Gobierno de Extremadura". Cinco Días (in Spanish). Mérida. EFE. 1 July 2015. Retrieved 6 December 2025.

Bibliography

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