2011 Manitoba general election

2011 Manitoba general election
October 4, 2011 (2011-10-04)
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout55.77%
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Greg Selinger Hugh McFadyen Jon Gerrard
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative Liberal
Leader since October 17, 2009 April 29, 2006 October 17, 1998
Leader's seat St. Boniface Fort Whyte River Heights
Last election 36 seats, 48.00% 19 seats, 37.89% 2 seats, 12.39%
Seats won 37 19 1
Seat change 1 1
Popular vote 199,066 188,528 32,420
Percentage 46.16% 43.71% 7.52%
Swing 1.84% 5.97% 4.60%
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.
Premier before election

Greg Selinger
New Democratic

Premier after election

Greg Selinger
New Democratic

The 2011 Manitoba general election was held to elect Members of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba. It took place on October 4, 2011, due to the new fixed-date election laws. In the outgoing legislature, the New Democratic Party of Manitoba (NDP) held 37 of the 57 seats, the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba (PC Party) held 19 of the 57 seats and the Liberal Party of Manitoba held one of the 57 seats, after Kevin Lamoureux resigned his seat in the riding of Inkster to run as a Liberal candidate in a federal by-election.[1]

Following the last census, electoral district boundaries were adjusted. There are 57 electoral districts.

Despite being perceived as a tight race in the run-up to voting, with The Globe and Mail expecting it to be the "closest in more than a decade",[2] the NDP won its fourth consecutive term in government, taking 37 seats, an improvement of one from the 2007 election – thus gaining their largest majority ever in the Assembly – whilst the Progressive Conservatives failed to make any gains beyond closing the gap in the popular vote, and not a single incumbent was defeated.[3] The PC leader Hugh McFadyen announced shortly thereafter that he would resign his post. Also facing a disappointing result in the election, Liberal leader Jon Gerrard also announced shortly after the election that he would resign his post once the party crowned a new leader in 2013.[4]

Reorganization of electoral divisions

In 2006, the Electoral Divisions Act was amended to provide for the creation of a permanent commission to determine any necessary redistribution of seats in the Legislative Assembly by the end of 2008, and then every tenth year thereafter.[5] Its final report would take effect upon the dissolution of the relevant Legislature. Following a series of hearings and an interim report,[6] the commission's final report was issued in December 2008, which provided for the following changes:[7]

Abolished ridings New ridings
New ridings
Reorganization of ridings
Merger of ridings
Renaming of ridings
  1. ^ from parts of La Vérendrye and Morris
  2. ^ with parts going to Fort Rouge and River Heights

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring
Party Riding Incumbent
NDP Burrows Doug Martindale[8]
Elmwood Bill Blaikie[9]
Flin Flon Gerard Jennissen[10]
Lord Roberts Diane McGifford[11]
Point Douglas George Hickes[12]
St. James Bonnie Korzeniowski[13]
St. Norbert Marilyn Brick[12]
Swan River Rosann Wowchuk[14]
Progressive Conservative Brandon West Rick Borotsik[15]
Lac du Bonnet Gerald Hawranik[16]
Pembina Peter George Dyck[17]
Portage la Prairie David Faurschou[18]
Russell Len Derkach[19]
Resigned
Liberal Inkster Kevin Lamoureux

Party leaderships

The Green Party and the NDP chose new leaders since the last general election.

On August 27, 2009 Premier Gary Doer, after being Premier of Manitoba for ten years announced his resignation as Premier and leader of the NDP. The following day he was appointed Canada's Ambassador to the United States.[20][21]

Three candidates entered the campaign to replace Doer: Steve Ashton, Greg Selinger and Andrew Swan. On September 28, 2009, Swan bowed out of the race and endorsed Selinger. Some pundits believe this was an attempt to stop Steve Ashton from becoming leader.[22]

Ashton, first seen as a minor candidate, ended up being a heavy-weight and, gaining momentum, scored big victories in some ridings, however it wasn't enough to convince many MLAs or win union endorsement. Selinger won the leadership election on October 17, 2009 with 65.75% of the ballot. His victory was achieved in large part by being backed by unions and the vast majority of the party elite.[21][23]

2009 New Democratic Party of Manitoba leadership election
Candidate Votes Percentage
Greg Selinger 1,317 65.75%
Steve Ashton 685 34.20%
Spoiled ballots 1 0.05%
Total 2,003 100.00%

The Green Party elected James Beddome to a two-year term party leader on November 15, 2008, defeating incumbent Andrew Basham and third candidate Shane Nestruck. After his victory, he said that he would work toward running a full slate of candidates in the next provincial election. He was the party's candidate for a by-election in the northeast Winnipeg division of Elmwood in early 2009.

Election campaign

Issues

Bipole III

Manitoba Hydro planned an alternative hydro-electric transmission line to Bipole I and II routes running through the Interlake region in Manitoba. Initially it planned a more easterly route to the east of Lake Winnipeg. The NDP ignored the expert opinion of Manitoba Hydro and decided to build the line on the west side of the province at a cost of $4.1 billion. Further, the NDP proposed the creation of a large UNESCO environmental heritage site named Pimachiowin Aki. Just days before his retirement as premier, Doer announced that the government would donate $10 million to the trust fund for UNESCO World Heritage site on the east side of Lake Winnipeg.[24] The NDP claimed that an east side Bipole III route would jeopardise the UNESCO site and claimed that a heritage site would benefit First Nations communities more.[25] The NDP proposed a longer, more expensive, alternative route through the west of Manitoba to preserve the environmental integrity of the east side. Subject to the Environmental Impact Statement to be completed in June 2011, the construction of the line will begin in the winter of 2012, one year after the election.[26]

Progressive Conservative leader Hugh McFadyen opposes the western route stating that it would cost $1 billion to $1.75 billion more, it would destroy more trees, 15 out of 16 First Nations believed the Bipole III would be more economically beneficial, and would be more at risk from disasters as the Bipole lines in the Interlake.[25] McFadyen promised that if elected he would cancel the western route, and build it down the east side.[27] McFadyen also supported the UNESCO site on the east side and claims that Bipole III would not jeopardise the World Heritage Site.[24][25]

Liberal leader Jon Gerrard proposed that instead of building the line down the east or west, Manitoba Hydro should put the cable under Lake Winnipeg as proposed by Dr. John Ryan, retired University of Winnipeg professor in 2008.[28] In the fall of 2010 Gerrard asked Manitoba Hydro CEO Bob Brennan if he had inquired into the Lake Winnipeg route. Brennan said that he had not. Gerrard promised to build the line through Lake Winnipeg if elected.[29]

Opinion polls

Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link NDP PC Liberal Green Other
Angus Reid Public Opinion September 30 – October 2, 2011 [p 1] 46 43 8 3 0
Probe Research Inc September 21–28, 2011 [p 2] 46 43 7 4
Environics September 26, 2011 [p 3] 42 45 10
Viewpoints Research September 14–21, 2011 [p 4] 41 32 5
Probe Research Inc June 29, 2011 [p 5] 44 44 9 3
Probe Research Inc March 23, 2011 [p 6] 35 47 14 4
Probe Research Inc November 25–Dec. 12, 2010 [p 7] 38 42 15 5
Angus Reid Public Opinion November 7–15, 2010 [p 8] 37 46 13 4 1
Probe Research Inc September 30, 2010 [p 9] 40 42 12 6
Angus Reid Public Opinion September 21, 2010 [p 10] 34 49 12 4 1
Viewpoints Research September 15, 2010 [p 11] 39 38 14 8 1
Probe Research Inc July 3, 2010 [p 12] 41 40 13 6
Angus Reid Public Opinion June 10, 2010 [p 13] 36 48 12 3 1
Probe Research Inc March 29, 2010 [p 14] 42 39 11 8 0
Angus Reid Public Opinion March 18, 2010 [p 15] 37 44 13 3 3
Probe Research Inc December 2009 [p 16] 47 37 11 4 1
Probe Research Inc September 2009 [p 17] 45 38 12 5
Probe Research Inc July 2009 [p 17] 45 36 14 5
Environics June 2009 [p 18] 43 35 22
Environics April 2009 [p 18] 49 37 12 2
Probe Research Inc March 2009 [p 17] 46 36 13 5
Probe Research Inc December 2008 [p 17] 41 43 10 6
Probe Research Inc September 2008 [p 17] 43 39 13 5
Probe Research Inc June 2008 [p 17] 46 36 13 5
Probe Research Inc March 2008 [p 17] 46 38 13 3
Election 2007 May 22, 2007

48.00%

37.89% 12.39% 1.34% 0.39%
Polling firm Last date
of polling 		Link Other
NDP PC Liberal Green

Leadership approval rating

Polling Firm Date of Polling Link Greg Selinger Hugh McFadyen Jon Gerrard
Probe Research Inc July 3, 2010 [1] 49 41 35
Disapproval rating 22 26 29


Results

Of 777,054 registered voters, 55.77% or 433,346 cast votes in the election.[30] Although this is slightly lower than the 2007 election, voter turnout in Manitoba has generally declined since the mid-1970s when it reached 78.3% in the 1973 general election.[31] About 78,500 voters took advantage of advance polls, more than any previous election.[32]

Summary of the October 4, 2011 Manitoba Legislature election
Party Party leader Candidates Seats Popular vote
2007 Dissol. 2011 % Change # % % Change
  New Democratic Greg Selinger 57 36 36 37 +2.78% 199,069 46.16 −1.84
  Progressive Conservative Hugh McFadyen 57 19 18 19 0.00% 188,535 43.71 +5.97
  Liberal Jon Gerrard 57 2 1 1 −50.00% 32,418 7.52 −4.60
Green James Beddome 32 0 0 0 − 10,886 2.52 +1.18
Communist Darrell Rankin 4 0 0 0 − 179 0.04 -0.05
  Independent 1 0 0 0 − 215 0.05 -0.25
  Vacant 2
Total Valid Votes 208 57 57 57 − 431,302 55.77% -0.98%

Vote and seat summaries

Ternary plots – shift of electoral support (2007–2011)
  • 2007
  • 2011
Electoral districts identified by colours of winning parties


Popular vote
New Democratic
 
 46.16%
PC
 
 43.71%
Liberal
 
 7.52%
Green
 
 2.52%
Others
 
 0.09%
Seat Count
New Democratic
 
 64.91%
PC
 
 33.33%
Liberal
 
 1.75%

Synopsis of results

2011 Manitoba general election – synopsis of riding results[33][34]
Electoral
division 		Winning party Votes
2007 1st
place 		Votes Share Margin
# 		Margin
% 		2nd
place 		NDP PC Lib Grn Ind Comm Total
 
Agassiz New PC 4,396 71.05% 3,332 53.85% NDP 1,064 4,396 411 316 – – 6,187
Arthur-Virden PC PC 4,983 65.97% 2,701 35.76% NDP 2,282 4,983 288 – – – 7,553
Assiniboia NDP NDP 5,095 58.22% 1,837 20.99% PC 5,095 3,258 194 204 – – 8,751
Brandon East NDP NDP 3,864 54.95% 1,153 16.40% PC 3,864 2,711 280 177 – – 7,032
Brandon West PC PC 4,231 48.68% 151 1.74% NDP 4,080 4,231 381 – – – 8,692
Burrows NDP NDP 3,063 59.34% 1,749 33.88% PC 3,063 1,314 629 124 – 32 5,162
Charleswood PC PC 4,838 55.83% 2,237 25.81% NDP 2,601 4,838 755 472 – – 8,666
Concordia NDP NDP 4,008 63.06% 2,205 34.69% PC 4,008 1,803 237 308 – – 6,356
Dauphin New NDP 4,483 54.93% 1,127 13.81% PC 4,483 3,356 124 199 – – 8,162
Dawson Trail New NDP 4,291 52.55% 737 9.03% PC 4,291 3,554 321 – – – 8,166
Elmwood NDP NDP 3,864 54.61% 1,465 20.70% PC 3,864[a 1] 2,399 467 346 – – 7,076
Emerson PC PC 3,982 72.65% 2,898 52.87% NDP 1,084 3,982 415 – – – 5,481
Flin Flon NDP NDP 1,890 57.13% 1,093 33.04% PC 1,890 797 510 111 – – 3,308
Fort Garry-Riverview NDP NDP 5,146 55.55% 2,094 22.61% PC 5,146 3,052 666 399 – – 9,263
Fort Richmond NDP NDP 4,026 53.47% 1,118 14.85% PC 4,026 2,908 369 226 – – 7,529
Fort Rouge NDP NDP 4,501 51.26% 2,470 28.13% Lib 4,501 1,770 2,031 478 – – 8,780
Fort Whyte PC PC 5,594 62.44% 2,939 32.81% NDP 2,655 5,594 710 – – – 8,959
Gimli NDP NDP 5,012 51.52% 802 8.24% PC 5,012 4,210 197 309 – – 9,728
Interlake NDP NDP 3,374 50.46% 471 7.04% PC 3,374 2,903 194 – 215 – 6,686
Kewatinook NDP NDP 2,043 57.15% 654 18.29% PC 2,043 1,389 49 94 – – 3,575
Kildonan NDP NDP 4,808 59.51% 1,928 23.86% PC 4,808 2,880 391 – – – 8,079
Kirkfield Park NDP NDP 4,928 46.75% 21 0.20% PC 4,928 4,907 367 339 – – 10,541
La Vérendrye NDP PC 4,487 64.07% 2,657 37.94% NDP 1,830 4,487 351 335 – – 7,003
Lac du Bonnet PC PC 4,350 54.30% 1,263 15.77% NDP 3,087 4,350 284 290 – – 8,011
Lakeside PC PC 5,043 65.80% 3,058 39.90% NDP 1,985 5,043 257 379 – – 7,664
Logan NDP NDP 2,985 58.75% 2,117 41.67% Lib 2,985 840 868 335 – 53 5,081
Midland New PC 5,139 69.45% 3,389 45.80% NDP 1,750 5,139 511 – – – 7,400
Minto NDP NDP 3,615 66.40% 2,782 51.10% PC 3,615 833 609 331 – 56 5,444
Morden-Winkler New PC 4,918 85.53% 4,259 74.07% NDP 659 4,918 173 – – – 5,750
Morris PC PC 5,681 74.00% 4,194 54.63% NDP 1,487 5,681 509 – – – 7,677
Point Douglas NDP NDP 3,806 73.28% 2,889 55.62% PC 3,806 917 257 176 – 38 5,194
Portage la Prairie PC PC 3,584 52.24% 886 12.91% NDP 2,698 3,584 579 – – – 6,861
Radisson NDP NDP 5,033 55.14% 1,445 15.83% PC 5,033 3,588 506 – – – 9,127
Riding Mountain New PC 4,465 58.47% 1,832 23.99% NDP 2,633 4,465 272 267 – – 7,637
Riel NDP NDP 5,352 54.90% 1,436 14.73% PC 5,352 3,916 480 – – – 9,748
River East PC PC 5,247 51.34% 735 7.19% NDP 4,512 5,247 188 274 – – 10,221
River Heights Lib Lib 4,756 45.92% 1,367 13.20% PC 1,843 3,389 4,756 370 – – 10,358
Rossmere NDP NDP 5,392 56.59% 1,962 20.59% PC 5,392 3,430 356 351 – – 9,529
Seine River NDP NDP 5,500 53.07% 931 8.98% PC 5,500 4,569 295 – – – 10,364
Selkirk NDP NDP 4,279 56.02% 1,271 16.64% PC 4,279 3,008 351 – – – 7,638
Southdale NDP NDP 5,662 52.01% 764 7.02% PC 5,662 4,898 327 – – – 10,887
Spruce Woods PC PC 4,495 66.65% 2,565 38.03% NDP 1,930 4,495 319 – – – 6,744
St. Boniface NDP NDP 5,914 68.87% 4,377 50.97% PC 5,914 1,537 606 530 – – 8,587
St. James NDP NDP 4,432 49.75% 1,018 11.43% PC 4,432 3,414 685 377 – – 8,908
St. Johns NDP NDP 4,157 65.96% 2,752 43.67% PC 4,157 1,405 348 392 – – 6,302
St. Norbert NDP NDP 3,966 45.15% 31 0.35% PC 3,966 3,935 883 – – – 8,784
St. Paul PC PC 5,554 59.59% 2,063 22.13% NDP 3,491 5,554 276 – – – 9,321
St. Vital NDP NDP 5,023 60.08% 2,147 25.68% PC 5,023 2,876 461 – – – 8,360
Steinbach PC PC 5,469 85.49% 4,981 77.86% NDP 488 5,469 440 – – – 6,397
Swan River NDP NDP 4,280 56.15% 1,202 15.77% PC 4,280 3,078 264 – – – 7,622
The Maples NDP NDP 3,894 51.83% 1,951 25.97% PC 3,894 1,943 1,395 281 – – 7,513
The Pas NDP NDP 2,995 73.61% 2,036 50.04% PC 2,995 959 115 – – – 4,069
Thompson NDP NDP 2,586 68.52% 1,518 40.22% PC 2,586 1,068 120 – – – 3,774
Transcona NDP NDP 4,488 58.23% 1,820 23.61% PC 4,488 2,668 551 – – – 7,707
Tuxedo PC PC 4,839 52.74% 2,509 27.34% NDP 2,330 4,839 1,516 491 – – 9,176
Tyndall Park Lib NDP 2,596 45.16% 589 10.25% Lib 2,596 908 2,007 237 – – 5,748
Wolseley NDP NDP 4,229 60.73% 2,861 41.08% Green 4,229 850 517 1,368 – – 6,964
  1. ^ Jim Maloway had previously been MLA for Elmwood between 1986 and 2008.
  = open seat
  = winning candidate was in previous Legislature
  = incumbent had switched allegiance
  = previously incumbent in another riding
  = incumbency arose from a byelection gain
  = not incumbent; was previously elected to the Legislature
  = other incumbents renominated
  = previously an MP in the House of Commons of Canada
  = multiple candidates

Turnout, winning shares and swings

Summary of riding results by turnout, vote share for winning candidate, and swing (vs 2007)[33][34]
Riding and winning party Turnout Vote share[a 1] Swing[a 2]
% Change (pp) % Change (pp) To Change (pp)
 
Agassiz PC 46.01 71.05
Arthur-Virden PC Hold 51.91 -4.89
 
 65.97 1.92
 
 PC 1.26
 
Assiniboia NDP Hold 62.00 0.15
 
 58.22 -3.99
 
 PC -4.47
 
Brandon East NDP Hold 53.12 -5.60
 
 54.95 1.00
 
 NDP 0.27
 
Brandon West PC Hold 59.79 -7.02
 
 48.68 0.63
 
 PC 0.58
 
Burrows NDP Hold 47.08 -3.03
 
 59.34 -11.41
 
 PC -9.05
 
Charleswood PC Hold 61.09 1.66
 
 55.83 1.21
 
 PC 1.51
 
Concordia NDP Hold 49.79 2.37
 
 63.06 -5.99
 
 PC -6.37
 
Dauphin NDP 62.09 54.93
Dawson Trail NDP 58.18 52.55
Elmwood NDP Hold 52.56 2.58
 
 54.61 -6.90
 
 PC -9.90
 
Emerson PC Hold 44.42 -5.09
 
 72.65 12.54
 
 PC 7.09
 
Flin Flon NDP Hold 35.34 -0.91
 
 57.13 -20.46
 
 Lib -6.74
 
Fort Garry-Riverview NDP Hold 65.06 9.49
 
 55.55 -2.57
 
 PC -8.93
 
Fort Richmond NDP Hold 62.91 -3.15
 
 53.47 0.87
 
 PC -6.00
 
Fort Rouge NDP Hold 61.22 -1.07
 
 51.26 4.29
 
 NDP 5.85
 
Fort Whyte PC Hold 61.91 2.76
 
 62.44 10.49
 
 PC 7.34
 
Gimli NDP Hold 65.98 3.07
 
 51.52 -7.22
 
 PC -8.21
 
Interlake NDP Hold 53.36 -3.17
 
 50.46 -9.04
 
 PC -8.26
 
Kewatinook NDP Hold 35.68 2.18
 
 57.15 -1.31
 
 PC -2.13
 
Kildonan NDP Hold 54.97 -3.60
 
 59.51 -2.12
 
 PC -4.37
 
Kirkfield Park NDP Hold 68.97 -0.24
 
 46.75 -2.57
 
 PC -5.50
 
La Verendrye PC Gain 53.61 -6.45
 
 64.07 26.25
 
 PC -25.62
 
Lac du Bonnet PC Hold 58.04 -0.48
 
 54.30 -4.71
 
 NDP -4.81
 
Lakeside PC Hold 57.12 -0.52
 
 65.80 9.61
 
 PC 8.47
 
Logan NDP Hold 48.04 1.99
 
 58.75 4.79
 
 NDP 2.31
 
Midland PC 51.35 69.45
Minto NDP Hold 46.43 -4.00
 
 66.40 2.78
 
 NDP 6.78
 
Morden-Winkler PC 40.78 85.53
Morris PC Hold 50.69 -3.44
 
 74.00 17.02
 
 PC 15.11
 
Point Douglas NDP Hold 44.04 3.90
 
 73.28 6.92
 
 NDP 8.34
 
Portage la Prairie PC Hold 50.99 -6.23
 
 52.24 3.93
 
 PC 3.50
 
Radisson NDP Hold 61.48 1.24
 
 55.14 -1.58
 
 PC -2.81
 
Riding Mountain PC 54.01 58.47
Riel NDP Hold 64.14 1.10
 
 54.90 -2.42
 
 PC -5.95
 
River East PC Hold 67.00 -0.57
 
 51.34 4.49
 
 PC 3.32
 
River Heights Liberal Hold 72.51 3.16
 
 45.92 -5.15
 
 PC -6.38
 
Rossmere NDP Hold 60.07 -1.63
 
 56.59 -4.12
 
 PC -3.69
 
Seine River NDP Hold 70.82 7.56
 
 53.07 -3.81
 
 PC -7.85
 
Selkirk NDP Hold 54.77 -4.41
 
 56.02 0.38
 
 PC -1.59
 
Southdale NDP Hold 70.13 4.39
 
 52.01 0.96
 
 PC -2.15
 
Spruce Woods PC Hold 48.64 -5.75
 
 66.65 0.56
 
 NDP -2.73
 
St. Boniface NDP Hold 59.50 -0.06
 
 68.87 2.83
 
 NDP 4.69
 
St. James NDP Hold 62.02 2.89
 
 49.75 -6.13
 
 PC -6.75
 
St. Johns NDP Hold 48.34 -3.11
 
 65.96 -2.86
 
 PC -4.28
 
St. Norbert NDP Hold 64.25 -1.22
 
 45.15 -8.59
 
 PC -10.72
 
St. Paul PC Hold 58.28 1.50
 
 59.59 1.13
 
 NDP -3.13
 
St. Vital NDP Hold 60.35 1.89
 
 60.08 -1.46
 
 PC -6.23
 
Steinbach PC Hold 49.66 -0.32
 
 85.49 2.51
 
 PC 1.77
 
Swan River NDP Hold 59.66 -5.56
 
 56.15 -2.25
 
 PC -2.49
 
The Maples NDP Hold 54.91 -0.14
 
 51.83 -4.33
 
 PC -0.39
 
The Pas NDP Hold 30.40 -6.23
 
 73.61 4.74
 
 NDP 1.31
 
Thompson NDP Hold 36.72 -3.10
 
 68.52 -5.38
 
 NDP 3.70
 
Transcona NDP Hold 51.24 2.44
 
 58.23 -10.50
 
 PC -11.48
 
Tuxedo PC Hold 62.31 1.78
 
 52.74 5.48
 
 PC 5.41
 
Tyndall Park NDP Gain 51.50 -9.95
 
 45.16 10.81
 
 NDP -16.81
 
Wolseley NDP Hold 55.60 0.32
 
 60.73 -3.16
 
 Green -5.36
 
  1. ^ Share won by winning candidate, with difference noted from share achieved by the same party in 2007.
  2. ^ Positive indicates improvement to standing of party winning in 2007; negative points to 2007's second-place party being swung to.

Changes in party shares

Share change analysis by party and riding (2011 vs 2007)[33][34]
Riding Green Liberal NDP PC
% Change (pp) % Change (pp) % Change (pp) % Change (pp)
 
Agassiz 5.11 New 6.64 New 17.20 New 71.05 New
Arthur-Virden 3.81 -1.32
 
 30.21 -0.60
 
 65.97 1.92
 
Assiniboia 2.33 2.33
 
 2.22 -3.30
 
 58.22 -3.99
 
 37.23 4.95
 
Brandon East 2.52 2.52
 
 3.98 -3.97
 
 54.95 1.00
 
 38.55 0.46
 
Brandon West 4.38 0.34
 
 46.94 -0.54
 
 48.68 0.63
 
Burrows 2.40 2.40
 
 12.19 1.69
 
 59.34 -11.41
 
 25.46 6.69
 
Charleswood 5.45 5.45
 
 8.71 -4.86
 
 30.01 -1.80
 
 55.83 1.21
 
Concordia 4.85 1.52
 
 3.73 -2.28
 
 63.06 -5.99
 
 28.37 6.75
 
Dauphin 2.44 New 1.52 New 54.93 New 41.12 New
Dawson Trail – New 3.93 New 52.55 New 43.52 New
Elmwood 4.89 4.89
 
 6.60 -10.88
 
 54.61 -6.90
 
 33.90 12.89
 
Emerson 7.57 -10.89
 
 19.78 -1.65
 
 72.65 12.54
 
Flin Flon 3.36 3.36
 
 15.42 -6.98
 
 57.13 -20.46
 
 24.09 24.09
 
Fort Garry-Riverview 4.31 -4.16
 
 7.19 -8.56
 
 55.55 -2.57
 
 32.95 15.29
 
Fort Richmond 3.00 -0.26
 
 4.90 -13.49
 
 53.47 0.87
 
 38.62 12.87
 
Fort Rouge 5.44 -0.83
 
 23.13 -7.40
 
 51.26 4.29
 
 20.16 5.41
 
Fort Whyte 7.92 -6.29
 
 29.64 -4.20
 
 62.44 10.49
 
Gimli 3.18 3.18
 
 2.03 -5.16
 
 51.52 -7.22
 
 43.28 9.20
 
Interlake 2.90 -1.64
 
 50.46 -9.04
 
 43.42 7.47
 
Kewatinook 2.63 2.63
 
 1.37 -4.27
 
 57.15 -1.31
 
 38.85 2.95
 
Kildonan – -2.51
 
 4.84 -2.00
 
 59.51 -2.12
 
 35.65 6.63
 
Kirkfield Park 3.22 3.22
 
 3.48 -9.08
 
 46.75 -2.57
 
 46.55 8.43
 
La Verendrye 4.78 4.78
 
 5.01 -1.22
 
 26.13 -24.99
 
 64.07 26.25
 
Lac du Bonnet 3.62 3.62
 
 3.55 -3.82
 
 38.53 4.91
 
 54.30 -4.71
 
Lakeside 4.95 0.54
 
 3.35 -2.81
 
 25.90 -7.34
 
 65.80 9.61
 
Logan 6.59 6.59
 
 17.08 0.17
 
 58.75 4.79
 
 16.53 3.41
 
Midland – New 6.91 New 23.65 New 69.45 New
Minto 6.08 6.08
 
 11.19 -10.77
 
 66.40 2.78
 
 15.30 2.82
 
Morden-Winkler – New 3.01 New 11.46 New 85.53 New
Morris 6.63 -3.82
 
 19.37 -13.20
 
 74.00 17.02
 
Point Douglas 3.39 -1.92
 
 4.95 -9.77
 
 73.28 6.92
 
 17.65 5.68
 
Portage la Prairie 8.44 -0.85
 
 39.32 -3.08
 
 52.24 3.93
 
Radisson 5.54 -2.45
 
 55.14 -1.58
 
 39.31 4.03
 
Riding Mountain 3.50 New 3.56 New 34.48 New 58.47 New
Riel 4.92 -7.07
 
 54.90 -2.42
 
 40.17 9.49
 
River East 2.68 2.68
 
 1.84 -5.02
 
 44.14 -2.14
 
 51.34 4.49
 
River Heights 3.57 -0.48
 
 45.92 -5.15
 
 17.79 -1.98
 
 32.72 7.61
 
Rossmere 3.68 3.68
 
 3.74 -2.82
 
 56.59 -4.12
 
 36.00 3.26
 
Seine River 2.85 -8.08
 
 53.07 -3.81
 
 44.09 11.89
 
Selkirk 4.60 -3.95
 
 56.02 0.38
 
 39.38 3.56
 
Southdale 3.00 -6.21
 
 52.01 0.96
 
 44.99 5.25
 
Spruce Woods 4.73 -6.58
 
 28.62 6.03
 
 66.65 0.56
 
St. Boniface 6.17 -0.70
 
 7.06 -6.55
 
 68.87 2.83
 
 17.90 5.01
 
St. James 4.23 -0.26
 
 7.69 -0.97
 
 49.75 -6.13
 
 38.33 7.36
 
St. Johns 6.22 1.48
 
 5.52 -4.32
 
 65.96 -2.86
 
 22.29 5.70
 
St. Norbert 10.05 -4.26
 
 45.15 -8.59
 
 44.80 12.85
 
St. Paul 2.96 -8.52
 
 37.45 7.39
 
 59.59 1.13
 
St. Vital – -4.68
 
 5.51 -4.84
 
 60.08 -1.46
 
 34.40 10.99
 
Steinbach – -3.62
 
 6.88 2.14
 
 7.63 -1.03
 
 85.49 2.51
 
Swan River 3.46 -0.49
 
 56.15 -2.25
 
 40.38 2.74
 
The Maples 3.74 3.74
 
 18.57 4.16
 
 51.83 -4.33
 
 25.86 -3.56
 
The Pas 2.83 -6.86
 
 73.61 4.74
 
 23.57 2.12
 
Thompson 3.18 -12.79
 
 68.52 -5.38
 
 28.30 18.17
 
Transcona 7.15 -1.96
 
 58.23 -10.50
 
 34.62 12.46
 
Tuxedo 5.35 5.35
 
 16.52 -5.48
 
 25.39 -5.35
 
 52.74 5.48
 
Tyndall Park 4.12 4.12
 
 34.92 -22.81
 
 45.16 10.81
 
 15.80 7.88
 
Wolseley 19.64 7.57
 
 7.42 -4.01
 
 60.73 -3.16
 
 12.21 0.89
 
  = did not field a candidate in 2007

By-elections since 2011

Manitoba provincial by-election, April 22, 2015: The Pas
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
New Democratic Amanda Lathlin 1,557 56.47 -16.74
  Progressive Conservative Jacob Nasekapow 817 29.63 +6.18
Liberal Inez Vystrcil-Spence 369 13.38 +10.56
Total valid votes 2,743 100.00
Rejected and declined votes 14
Turnout 2,757 22.10
Electors on the lists 12,475
New Democratic hold Swing
Manitoba provincial by-election, January 28, 2014: Arthur-Virden
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
  Progressive Conservative Doyle Piwniuk 3,137 68.20 +2.23
Liberal Floyd Buhler 738 16.04 +12.23
New Democratic Bob Senff 480 10.43 -19.78
Green Kate Storey 245 5.33
Total valid votes 4,600 100.00
Rejected and declined votes 10
Turnout 4,610 33.55
Electors on the lists 13,739
Progressive Conservative hold Swing -5.00
Manitoba provincial by-election, January 28, 2014: Morris
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
  Progressive Conservative Shannon Martin 2,642 69.99 -4.01
New Democratic Dean Harder 488 12.93 -6.44
Liberal Jeremy Barber 422 11.18 +4.55
  Independent Ray Shaw 138 3.66 -
Green Alain Landry 85 2.25 -
Total valid votes 3,775
Rejected and declined votes 17
Turnout 3,792 27.51
Electors on the lists 13,782
Progressive Conservative hold Swing +1.21
Manitoba provincial by-election, September 4, 2012
Resignation of Hugh McFadyen: Fort Whyte
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Progressive Conservative Brian Pallister 3,626 55.14 -6.99
Liberal Bob Axworthy 2,069 31.47 +23.59
New Democratic Bonny Schmidt 739 11.24 -18.25
Green Donnie H.J Benham 113 1.73 +1.73
Independent Darrell Ackman 19 0.03 +0.03
Spoiled/rejected votes 10
turnout 41.64
Total valid votes 6,576 100.00 [35]

References

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Opinion poll sources

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