2011 Democratic Party of Japan leadership election

The 2011 Democratic Party of Japan leadership election took place on 29 August 2011. The election was held to replace outgoing president and Prime Minister Naoto Kan, who resigned on 26 August.

In a field of five candidates, finance minister Yoshihiko Noda pulled off a come-from-behind victory against economy minister Banri Kaieda. Noda secured support from members who had previously supported Seiji Maehara and Michihiko Kano, delivering him a majority in the runoff.^[1] Noda was elected Prime Minister by the Diet on 30 August and formally appointed by Emperor Akihito on 2 September.

Naoto Kan became Prime Minister in June 2010. After losing the upper house elections the following month, he experienced difficulty pursuing his legislative agenda and faced declining ratings. By December, his approval had fallen below 30% and the DPJ was trailing in the polls. Kan's position worsened further after the March 2011 Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami. The government's response, particularly its handling of the Fukushima nuclear accident, was viewed as slow and insufficient. The DPJ suffered losses in the unified local elections the following month.

In June, anti-Kan factions of the party, led by Ichirō Ozawa with the support of Yukio Hatoyama, threatened to join the Liberal Democratic and Komeito opposition in supporting a motion of no confidence to bring Kan down. To defuse the situation and prevent a split in the party, Kan promised to resign in the near future. The motion was defeated by a margin of 293 to 152.^[2] On the 27th, he announced that he would resign after the passage of three key bills: a second supplementary budget for the 2011 fiscal year, a bill promoting renewable energy, and a debt financing bill for disaster reconstruction. After negotiations with the LDP, the first was passed in July and the latter two on 26 August, at which time Kan resigned.^[3][4]

• Sakihito Ozawa, member of the House of Representatives (1993–), Minister of the Environment (2009–10)^[5]
• Shinji Tarutoko, member of the House of Representatives (1993–2005, 2009–), candidate in the June 2010 contest^[5]

Seiji Maehara was initially considered the frontrunner, alongside Yoshihiko Noda and Banri Kaieda. He was the most popular candidate with the public and was favoured by younger Diet members.^[3][6][7][8] Maehara and Noda were factionally aligned and shared overlapping bases of support.^[9] However, Noda was believed to have less baggage and fewer enemies within the party, and more likely to be able to cultivate a working relationship with the opposition LDP.^[10]

As in previous contests, Ichirō Ozawa was a key powerbroker: he initially negotiated with Yoshito Sengoku and said he would back Maehara in return for being appointed secretary-general, but withdrew his support when the offer was rejected. Ozawa attempted to persuade allies Azuma Koshiishi and Takeo Nishioka to run but was unsuccessful. He elected instead to support Kaieda, who had already announced his candidacy.^{[11][12][13][14]} Takao Toshikawa attributed about 100 members to Ozawa's faction in addition to 40 from Hatoyama's faction. In order to secure a majority, Ozawa aimed to exploit the divide between Noda and Maehara, and form an alliance with Michihiko Kano in the runoff.^[6]

A Kyodo News survey from August showed Maehara as the most popular candidate among the public with 28% support, compared to 4.8% for Noda.^[9] A poll for the Asahi Shimbun on 20–21 August found 39.7% preferred Maehara, followed by 10.1% for Kaieda, 7.2% for Noda, 5.8% for Mabuchi, 2.9% for Ozawa, 1.2% for Kano, and 0.4% for Tarutoko.^[15] Another Asahi poll on 25–26 August found 40% support for Maehara, 5% each for Kaieda and Kazuhiro Haraguchi, 4% for Noda and Mabuchi, 3% for Ozawa, 1% for Kano, and 0% for Tarutoko.^[16]

Both Noda and Maehara stated they would seek a grand coalition with the LDP. Noda advocated raising the consumption tax; Kaieda, Kano, and Mabuchi opposed any rise in the tax and preferred to issue more bonds to raise public funds. Maehara held a middle position, stating that he would focus on promoting growth rather than tax hikes. Noda and Maehara were also considered strong advocates of the U.S.–Japan Alliance and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, while Kaieda took a more pro-China position. Both he and Kano opposed the TPP.^{[1][17][14][18][19][20]} All candidates took a softer line on nuclear power than outgoing Prime Minister Kan, but both Kaieda and Maehara supported a gradual phase-out. Noda was considered the most pro-nuclear candidate, calling for shut-down plants to be restarted. Kaieda advocated greater spending on public works to drive recovery from the earthquake and tsunami.^[11][13] Kaieda, Kano, and Mabuchi also supported reviewing Ichirō Ozawa's party suspension, which Maehara opposed. Kaieda stated that the party "needed Mr. Ozawa’s strength to overcome [Japan's] problems".^[13][21][22]

Prime Minister Kan asked his close ally Toshimi Kitazawa to mediate between Noda and Maehara to prevent Ozawa's preferred candidate, Kaieda, from securing victory. He met with secretary-general Katsuya Okada, Jun Azumi, and key Maehara backer Yoshito Sengoku, who agreed to coordinate their votes in the event of a runoff ballot.

The Nikkei reported that, on the eve of the election, the Maehara camp expected to receive 70–80 votes and it remained unclear whether he or Noda would place second. They reported that moderate and undecided Diet members coalesced around Noda in the final stage due to antipathy toward Maehara campaign leaders such as Sengoku and movement in Noda's direction from the Kan faction. His support climbed to 90 votes on the 28th, and ultimately totalled 102 on the ballot itself. The Kaieda camp estimated their support at 160 votes, but received only 143.^[23]

With the Maehara camp's backing secure for Noda, the runoff was decided by supporters of Kano and Mabuchi. The Kaieda camp reported their difficulty in securing additional votes; approaches to younger, floating members came across as "overbearing". Kaieda's unclear policy proposals, the influence of Ozawa and Hatoyama, and his poor public speaking were also given as reasons for his failure.^[24] Mabuchi told his supporters that he was backing Kaieda in the runoff, but they did not close ranks and a number voted for Noda instead. Kano arranged a system to indicate which way to vote in the runoff: after the two candidates' final speeches, if he removed his jacket, he was backing Noda. He indeed removed his jacket and approximately 30 of his supporters followed, delivering Noda victory.^[23]